The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects |
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| Authors: | Ning ZENG Kejun JIANG Pengfei HAN Zeke HAUSFATHER Junji CAO Daniel KIRK-DAVIDOFF Shaukat ALI Sheng ZHOU |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park 20742,Maryland,USA;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100045,China;Carbon Neutrality Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Breakthrough Institute,Oakland 94612,California,USA;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park 20742,Maryland,USA;Global Change Impact Study Centre,Ministry of Climate Change,Islamabad 45250,Pakistan;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China |
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| Abstract: | On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar’s critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China’s socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development. |
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| Keywords: | carbon neutral carbon dioxide reductions energy system transformation distributed energy system model projections |
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