国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

王成超, 杨玉盛, 庞雯, 洪静, 谢剑斌

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6) : 938-943.

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地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6) : 938-943. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.016
研究论文

国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

作者信息 +

A Review on Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation of Climate Change and Variability

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文章历史 +

摘要

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。

Abstract

Climate change and variability are predicted to have dramatic impacts on weather patterns, food production, ecosystem health, species distributions, and human health. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts on developing countries will be strongest on vulnerable sectors such as agriculture and fisheries which substantially constitute rural livelihoods. Owing to higher costs and difficulty in mitigating climate change by decreasing carbon emission and promoting carbon capture and sequestration, adaptation to climate change becomes the research focus of international academia in the 21st century. As the most important stakeholders of climate change, farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to climate change are essential to human mitigation. However, this study raises many important and largely unresolved issues about farm-level climate change adaptation. Based on recent theoretical and empirical studies, this paper provides an overview of farmers’ perception and a series of adaptation strategies to combat climate change and variability at the farm-level. Based on clarifying the definitions of climate change and climate variability, the review summarizes the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and variability and finds that the extent to which farmers are aware of climate change is uneven. Some farmers are reported to gain the accurate perceptions of climate change, while others gain contradictory results. Many factors, including key extreme climatic events, magnitude of climate variability, social-cultural backgrounds, political-economic conditions, direct experience, climate information, public propaganda, and prejudice of media, household characteristics, and individual knowledge, would play an important role in shaping farmers’ perceptions. Moreover, we systematically summarize a range of strategies adopted by farmers to cope with climate change and variability. However, whether these strategies are primary adaptation to climate change is debatable. Besides climate change and variability, other socio-economic and political determinants of these strategies should not be neglected. Finally, several research prospects are put forward to promote China’s future related research.

关键词

气候变化 / 气候变异 / 农户 / 感知 / 适应策略

Key words

climate change / climate variability / farmer / perception / adaption strategy

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王成超, 杨玉盛, 庞雯, 洪静, 谢剑斌. 国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 938-943 https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.016
Wang Chengchao, Yang Yusheng, Pang Wen, Hong Jing, Xie Jianbin. A Review on Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation of Climate Change and Variability[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 938-943 https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.016
气候变化作为人类社会面临的重大挑战之一,往往对发展中国家的农业和渔业产生较大不利影响,进而威胁国家粮食安全以及加剧农户生计脆弱性[1]。因此,气候变化成为21世纪可持续研究领域重要的研究课题之一。由于通过减少碳排放和增加碳储存以减缓气候变化存在许多困难,气候变化适应成为近十年来气候变化相关领域关注的焦点[2]。其研究尺度囊括全球、国家、区域、社区、家庭或个人,涉及领域包括农业、林业、渔业和工业等多个产业部门。但是,农户尺度气候变化感知及适应研究仍存在许多问题：概念界定不清、农户感知不准确、感知如何转化为适应行为等。本研究通过对国内外相关研究进行系统梳理,指出当前研究中的不足,明确农户气候变化适应研究的关键科学问题,并对未来研究进行展望,为中国未来相关研究提供借鉴和参考。

1 气候变化与气候变异概念辨析

1.1 气候变化概念

气候变化(Climate change)概念可追溯到20世纪90年代,随着社会对全球变暖问题的日益关注,科学界将人类活动造成的温室气体排放与近百年全球变暖相关联,开展了大量的验证研究。在这种背景下,联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)将气候变化定义为经过相当一段时间的观察,在自然气候变化之外,由人类活动直接或间接地改变全球大气组成所导致的气候改变[3]。该概念强调全球尺度长时间人类活动通过排放温室气体而导致的气候改变,内涵较为狭窄。之后,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)认为气候变化是指气候平均状态统计学意义上的巨大改变或者持续较长一段时间（典型的为几十年或更长）的气候变动。将气候变化归因于自然内部过程,或外部驱动因素（如太阳周期调整、火山爆发、大气组成或土地利用方面持续人为变化）[3]。该概念将气候系统内部自然过程以及气候系统外部驱动因子引起的气候变动都包含进来,其内涵更加宽广。IPCC概念虽认为自然内部过程变化也是一个原因,但更多的强调外部驱动因子尤其是人类活动的影响。在时间尺度上,上述概念都认为是较长一段时间,典型的为几十年,一般指30 a或更长时间。总之,气候变化源于全球变暖研究,强调全球尺度较长时间阶段气候要素（如气温、降水）稳定趋势的变化。

1.2 气候变异概念

气候变异(Climate variability)是指除了个别的气候事件以外,在所有的时空尺度上气候平均状态变化或其他气候统计数值（如标准差、极端值出现等）变化[3]。这种变化可能源于自然内部过程或源于自然、人类外部驱动因素的变化。这一概念在研究中获得较为广泛的认可和应用。但也有学者对该概念有不同的认识,如国内有学者认为气候变异是指由于气候系统内部分量或自然外驱动因子改变引起的月、季、年际和年代时间尺度上气候要素的自然波动性,或者仅仅由于气候系统内部分量改变引起的多年代及更长时间尺度上气候要素的长期演化过程[4]。该概念认为气候变异是由气候内部分量或自然驱动因子引起的,与各种人为因素影响无关,其内涵更加狭窄。本文倾向于认可国内学者提出的概念,因为并没有充分证据表明各种气候变异（如极端气候事件、降水时机及季节分配异常）是由人类活动排放温室气体导致的,IPCC报告的气候变异概念有夸大人类活动影响嫌疑。在空间尺度上,气候变异概念涉及多个不同的尺度,包括全球、国家、区域、社区等。在时间尺度上,气候系统内部变化与外部驱动变化在不同时间尺度上往往有不同特征,故其时间尺度包含月、季、年际、年代及更长时间尺度。为体现与气候变化概念的不同,许多学者往往把更短时间尺度（如30 a以下）的气候要素波动称为气候变异,长时间尺度的气候要素波动则区别对待。有些学者则为避免概念混淆,干脆将两者连在一起使用,将气候要素变化统称为气候变化与变异[5]。总之,气候变异强调不同时空尺度非人类活动导致的气候要素的异常,包括气温和降水等要素在某一年的突变、极端高温及极端低温出现和频繁的极端气候事件等。

1.3 农户研究对气候变化概念不恰当运用

由于学术界缺乏统一的概念界定,不同的领域、学术团体、学科乃至个人对相关概念的理解会有所偏差,导致气候变化概念不同程度的滥用。根据上述概念界定,气候变化应该是全球范围内较长时间内气候要素的稳定变化,其典型特征包括增温、干旱、海平面上升等气温和降水均值的变化。该概念强调较长时间阶段的稳定变化,一般需要30 a或更长观察数据进行旁证,但许多学者或农户将短期的天气变化和气候变异归为气候变化。例如,有学者指出农户往往将观察到的短期的天气变化、气候变异与长期的气候变化混淆[6];许多研究者将本应属于气候变异的极端气候事件、极端气温变化、降水异常也归到气候变化范畴[7];有学者甚至仅仅利用过去5 a干旱和洪涝灾害变化来表征纳米比亚中北部地区气候变化[8];甚至还有学者在研究越南湄公河流域农户气候变化适应时,将极端气候事件、非季节性和异常降雨、雨水不足、海水入侵、异常高温、异常低温等气候异常全部归为气候变化[9]。类似的问题在国内研究中也同样存在,此处不一一列举。

2 农户对气候变化/变异感知

2.1 农户对气候变化/变异感知结果

感知是一种认知过程,在该过程中人们根据他们的兴趣、历史背景、知识、经验和态度进行学习和解释感觉印象,以给出他们周围环境意义并付之于行动[10]。由于气候变化感知通常作为气候变化适应的前提条件,农户对气候变化感知研究成为当前研究焦点之一。农户对气候变化感知一般分为存在感知和影响感知2个部分,前者是指农户觉察到气候要素的变化,后者则是指觉察到这种变化对自身生计的影响[11]。目前,农户是否对气候变化/变异有明确的感知尚存在较大研究分歧。一方面,许多研究者发现农户对气候变化/变异有明确的感知,且该感知得到科学数据的印证。例如,有学者发现江苏和安徽多数受访农户对气温和降水变化感知与实际情况一致[12];有学者发现菲律宾农户对过去30 a极端气候事件感知与历史气象记录大体吻合[13];有学者发现内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对短期气候变化趋势的感知较深刻和准确[14]。同时,上述研究也发现大多数农户都认识到气候变化/变异对农业生产的不利影响。另一方面,许多研究者发现农户对气候变化没有明确的感知或感知不准确。例如,有研究发现孟加拉国案例区近60%受访农户对气候变化没有感知[15];基于意大利和菲律宾研究发现农户气候变异感知并不一致甚至相互矛盾[13, 16];有研究则发现内蒙古牧户对降水变化的感知与气象数据不符,99%的受访牧户认为近30 a来降雨减少,但气象监测数据并未发现降雨减少趋势,感知不准确[17]。

2.2 农户对气候变化/变异感知影响因素

针对上述农户感知分歧,哪些因素阻碍了农户对气候变化/变异感知呢?有学者认为关键的极端气候事件、气候变化幅度、社会文化背景、政治经济条件、个人背景经历、直觉观察、气候变化信息、信念、认知偏见和知识等因素可能影响农户的感知[18, 19]。首先,气候变化的时间尺度及幅度与农户的有效记忆严重不匹配,从而影响农户对气候变化感知。农户难以觉察几十年内气候要素的缓慢变化[20],致使其将长期的气候变化误认为历史上剧烈的极端气候事件和短期的气候波动。其次,气候变化的表征指标往往与农业生产联系不够紧密,从而影响农户感知。当前多数研究将长时期年平均降水和气温变化作为气候变化的表征,但均值的变化不能反映气候对自然资源使用者的影响特性。第三,自然条件和社会政治经济背景等因素使农户气候变化感知具有明显空间异质性。大量研究表明气候变化在不同地区其影响程度和影响表现是不同的,且不同地区气候要素变化的边际效应是不同的,一般认为若农户对自然条件和自然资源依赖性强、适应能力弱以及自然条件较恶劣,农户对气候变化感知会更强。第四,农户个体特征,包括年龄、性别、教育、经历、收入水平、家庭规模等因素对气候变化感知具有重要的影响[9, 21]。第五,认知偏见对农户气候变化感知的影响。虽大量的研究将农户较低的气候变化感知归因于信息不畅通及媒体宣传不够,但片面宣传导致的认知偏见会误导个人的气候变化感知[22, 23]。第六,研究者自身对气候变化的非中立立场也会极大的影响研究结果。研究者大多是在认同气候变化的前提下开展研究的,其价值非中立立场必然通过引导受访者以及信息筛选影响研究结果。

3 农户对气候变化/变异适应

3.1 气候变化/变异适应障碍因素

气候变化感知转化为后期的适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。首先,气候变化及变异的不稳定性直接阻碍农户的准确感知。其次,农户自身条件通过影响风险的评估以及适应行为有效性而作用于气候变化适应。如人口和社会经济因素、气候变化信任以及心理因素对农户适应起着重要的影响[9]。第三,适应行为所需资源和条件的欠缺导致农户适应能力不足而限制适应措施的实施。例如,有学者发现埃塞尔比亚尼罗河盆地大部分农户虽觉察到过去20 a间气候变化,但42%的调查农户由于缺乏信息、资金、劳动力、土地以及较差的灌溉潜力而没有实施适应策略[24];有学者指出由于缺乏资源或社会经济条件的不足,限制了农户面对既定风险的适应行为[25, 26];有研究指出气候变化的信息、知识和技术、信贷或储蓄、水资源和市场可达性以及产权制度等方面的不足是落实适应策略的主要限制因素[27];也有研究提出不同社会群体的文化或民族认同成为适应生计多样化策略的重要障碍[28]。

3.2 农户适应策略

由于目前绝大多数实证研究主要集中在非洲热带草原气候区,少量案例区分布在亚洲（如尼泊尔、印度、孟加拉、中国等）、拉丁美洲（如墨西哥、洪都拉斯、智力）等欠发达地区,农户适应策略总体上比较类似[9]。有学者将农户适应策略划分为3类：耕作日历及庄稼类型变化、水土保持措施以及灌溉系统的改善,具体适应措施需因地制宜[5, 6, 24]。其中,因具备最少投资和难度最小,种植和收获时间的调整以及耐干旱耐高温庄稼及品种选择是贫困农户最常用的应对策略;灌溉系统改善因需要较高投资而较少被贫困农户所采纳[7, 24]。例如,尼日利亚热带草原牧户适应策略主要包括改变种植时间、庄稼和类型多样化、水土保持、灌溉、非农收入多样化和造林6种类型[29]。越南湄公河流域农户应对策略包括调整种植日历、调整种植技术、作物及品种的多样化、收入多元化、水资源管理、加强人口和财产安全等7个方面[9];不同经营类型农户应对措施在类型和程度上也有明显差异[16, 26]。为此,农户根据各地区自然条件、气候变化/变异对农业系统的影响以及自身的适应能力确定适应策略。

3.3 适应策略与气候变化/变异的关系

当前研究虽对农户适应策略进行了归纳,但一个悬而未决的议题是适应策略在多大程度上是应对局地气候变化或更大范围的全球气候变化的。首先,影响农户感知和适应策略的一系列复杂因素使得人们难以区分应对短期气候变异和长期气候变化的应对策略。其次,气候原因驱动的适应策略与其他社会经济原因驱动的适应策略之间的界线是模糊的,将气候适应策略区分出来是非常有挑战性的[30]。有学者指出尽管农户认识到气候变化/变异对农业生产的负面影响,但气候因素与其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素相比是一个有限的或不太重要的驱动因素,其他因素在很大程度上决定着土地利用变化和生计多样性[31]。即众多驱动因素对应着一种适应策略,属于“多因一果”关系,将某种适应策略强行归因于不太重要的气候变化是不客观的。例如,许多研究将农作物和牲畜品种选择列为贫困农户应对气候变化的首选策略,但实际上人口增长、技术进步、市场需求以及气候挑战等多种因素是采用新品种的主要驱动因素[17],气候因素可能并非是最主要因素,尤其是在食物丰沛、市场发育和已摆脱绝对贫困的国家和地区,新品种选择主要是追求产品营养、口味、稀奇、品质等属性。再例如,许多研究者将生计多样化列为农户适应气候变化的重要策略,实际上这些策略主要是为了提升生计资本利用效率以及家庭生计可持续性,而不是专门应对气候变化的。第三,当前研究对农业技术进步作用重视不足。随着农业技术进步和科学的资源管理,气候条件对农业生产的约束将逐渐变小,人类的主观能动性得以增强。

4 研究展望

近几十年来,随着人类社会经济的快速发展以及环境问题的日益凸显,科学界开始关注由人类活动所引发的气候变化以及人类响应,并涌现了大量的学术成果。但是,对气候变化问题的过度关注使其成为解释农村各种深层次问题（如贫困、生计脆弱性、自然灾害、粮食安全、社会剥夺等）的“万金油”或“替罪羊”,影响学者对重点领域应有的关注[32]。而且,该领域尚存在许多关键问题没有阐释清楚,研究成果水平参差不齐;少量学术呼吁被大量学术成果所淹没[33]。依据上述综述内容,针对未来中国研究提出几点研究展望。

4.1 慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究

由于中国国情与贫困非洲截然不同,不易觉察的气候变化和捉摸不透的气候变异相对于中国剧烈的社会经济转型而言是一个缓慢变化的变量,它在近期农户土地利用变化决策中的作用总体上是微乎其微的。相反,中国长期高速的经济增长以及大规模城镇化引发的一系列环境变化[34],包括国内农产品消费市场增长、耕地大量转化为建设用地、农村日益活跃的土地流转及农业专业化、发达的物流运输系统、全球化背景下农产品进出口贸易、生产地和消费地空间位移、农业技术进步等,对农户土地利用变化影响更为深远。因此,在中国开展大规模农户气候变化感知和适应研究是不合适的,相关研究应局限在气候条件是农业生产主要驱动因素的生态脆弱区,如青藏高原地区和中国东北地区。

4.2 厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系

如上所述,无论是国际学术界还是普通农户,对于气候变化和气候变异等概念正确理解是远远不够的,基于此背景下研究结果的准确性是值得怀疑的。为此,研究者以及受访者需要厘清这些概念以及它们所驱动的适应策略。选择合适的研究案例区,依赖精准的农户调查以及深度访谈,并借助于其他一些数理统计方法,将专门气候因素变化所导致的农户适应与其他因素驱动的适应相区分,构建气候变化/变异与农户适应策略之间单一因果关系,阐释气候变化/变异感知对适应策略实施的影响。

4.3 重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究

气候变化是一个全球尺度的问题,而适应策略是局地尺度的,为实现研究尺度匹配性,需要将气候变化在局地尺度的具体情况进行深入研究。由于各地区气候变化/变异程度和特征不同,以及自然条件、社会政治经济条件和区域空间尺度等差异导致气候变化后果是不同的[34],农户感知和适应必然存在显著的空间异质性;且气候变化感知与适应行为是动态变化的,该类研究应加以重视。在自然基底条件类似的情况下,加强中国与国外（如非洲、南亚、美洲等）地区的比较研究,探析农户感知和适应的一般性规律。另外,除农户家庭特征外,不同农场规模、农场类型、现代化水平、自然条件依赖性等农户异质性也会影响农户适应策略,该方面研究也需要加强。

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Granderson A A.Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens[J]. Climate Risk Management, 2014, 3: 55-64.How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.05.003
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[20]
黄小燕, 王小平, 王劲松, 等. 1960-2013 年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 612-620.
[Huang Xiaoyan, Wang Xiaoping, Wang Jingsong et al. Variation of extreme temperature events in coastal region of China in 1960-2013. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(4): 612-620.]
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[21]
朱红根, 周曙东.南方稻区农户适应气候变化行为实证分析—基于江西省 36 县 (市) 346 份农户调查数据[J]. 自然资源学报, 2011, 26(7): 1119-1128.
[Zhu Honggen, Zhou Shudong.Factors influencing southern rice farmers adapting to climate change behavior—Based on 346 household survey data of 36 counties in Jiangxi Province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011, 26(7): 1119-1128.]
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[22]
Weber E U.What shapes perceptions of climate change?[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2010, 1(3): 332-342.Climate change, as a slow and gradual modification of average climate conditions, is a difficult phenomenon to detect and track accurately based on personal experience. Insufficient concern and trust also complicate the transfer of scientific descriptions of climate change and climate variability from scientists to the public, politicians, and policy makers, which is not a simple transmission of facts. Instead, worldview and political ideology, two elements of the cultural context of decisions, guide attention toward events that threaten the desired or existing social order, and shape expectations of change, which in turn guide the detection and interpretation of climate events. Action that follows from climate change perceptions can be informed by different processes. Affect-based decisions about climate change are unlikely to motivate significant action, as politicians and the general public are not particularly worried about climate risks, and because attempts to scare people into greater action may have unintended negative consequences. Analysis-based decisions are also unlikely to result in significant action, because of large discounting of uncertain future costs of climate risks compared to the certain and immediate costs of climate change mitigation. Rule-based decisions that determine behavior based on moral or social responsibility may hold out the best prospects for sustainable action. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.41
http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20133062812.html
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[23]
常跟应, 黄夫朋, 李曼, 等. 中国公众对全球气候变化认知与支持减缓气候变化政策研究——基于全球调查数据和与美国比较视角[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(12): 1481-1487.
[Chang Genying, Huang Fupeng, Li Man et al. Public perception of climate change and their support of climate policy in China: Based on global surveys and in comparison with USA. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12): 1481-1487.]
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Deressa T T, Hassan R M, Ringler C et al. Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia[J]. Global Evironmental Change, 2009, 19(2): 248-255.This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378009000156
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[25]
Frank E, Eakin H, López-Carr D.Social identity, perception and motivation in adaptation to climate risk in the coffee sector of Chiapas, Mexico[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21(1): 66-76.
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[26]
赵雪雁, 薛冰. 高寒生态脆弱区农户对气候变化的感知与适应意向——以甘南高原为例[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(7): 2329-2339.lt;p>以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原为研究区，基于农户调查数据，分析了农户的气候变化感知对其适应意向的影响，为制定有效的气候变化适应政策提供依据.结果表明： 纯农户、兼业户、非农户对气候变化的严重性的感知依次降低，但适应功效感知依次增强，且与非农户、纯农户相比，兼业户的可能性感知、自我效能感知与适应成本感知均较高；纯农户、兼业户、非农户对气候变化的积极适应意向趋于增强；气候变化风险感知、适应功效感知促使农户产生积极适应意向，而适应成本感知促使其产生消极适应意向.同时，农户拥有的耕地面积、牲畜数量、收入水平以及性格乐观程度与积极适应意向发生概率呈显著正相关，而固定资产拥有量、无偿现金援助机会、亲戚网及帮助网规模与其呈显著负相关.最后，提出了促使农户产生积极适应意向的对策建议及未来研究中需关注的问题.</p>
https://doi.org/10.13287/j.1001-9332.201607.039
http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/yystxb201607035
[Zhao Xueyan, Xuebing. Farmer’s perception and adaptation intention for climate change in high-cold eco-fragile region: A case of Gannan Plateau, China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(7): 2329-2339.]
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[27]
Ozor N.Difficulties in adaptation to climate change by farmers in Enugu State, Nigeria[J]. Journal of Agricultural Extension, 2010, 14(2): 106-122.The impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and food security are serious source of worry to farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. This is because their economies mainly depend on agriculture which is now affected by climate change catastrophes. The paper examines why farmers find it difficult to adapt to climate change impacts. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used in selecting 120 farmers that participated in the study. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used in analyzing data. Major results show that the most difficult challenges faced by farmers in adapting to climate change impacts in the State were: lack of improved agricultural technologies, low adaptive capacities, and unsustainable agricultural practices. Furthermore, a framework for climate change adaptation shows that a mix of agronomic best practices, technology and innovation development and institutional and policy reforms were proposed as capable of improving farmers adaptation capacity to climate change. The paper concluded with the recommendation that farmers adaptation capacities to climate change need to be urgently strengthened by extension service so as to sustain agricultural production and food security even in the event of climate change.
https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v14i2.64127
http://www.oalib.com/paper/1341243
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[28]
Crane T A, Roncoli C, Hoogenboom G.Adaptation to climate change and climate variability: The importance of understanding agriculture as performance[J]. NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 2011, 57(3): 179-185.Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and pathways and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrate adaptive human agency. Richards’ concept of ‘agriculture as performance’ is useful in counterbalancing the modelling approach to adaptation because it highlights how adaptive processes and technologies, whether short term or long term, are more than simple technical responses to biophysical conditions. Instead, adaptive processes are social phenomena whose significance and effects expand well beyond changing climate conditions. This examination of agriculture as performance in the context of climate adaptation draws on two different examples. The first example explores how technical aspects of climate adaptation in Mali are situated within the enactment of ethnic identities and political struggles between farmers and herders. The second example shows how farmers in southeastern United States approach climate variability and climate forecasts as risk management tools. There are substantial differences between approaching adaptation as a dynamic process that is socially – and ecologically – embedded and approaching adaptation as a set of modelled responses to anticipated future conditions. It is unlikely that either is adequate to meet the challenges posed by the uncertainties associated with climate change. However, building a synergistic relationship between the two promises to be as difficult as it is necessary.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njas.2010.11.002
http://www.cabdirect.org/abstracts/20113144097.html
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[29]
Tambo J A, Abdoulaye T.Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 2013, 13(2): 375-388.The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers鈥 perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0351-0
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-012-0351-0
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Harmer N, Rahman S.Climate change response at the farm level: A review of farmers’ awareness and adaptation strategies in developing countries[J]. Geography Compass, 2014, 8(11): 808-822.Abstract This paper provides an overview of farmers awareness and a typology of adaptation strategies undertaken in order to combat climate change at the farm-level in developing countries. The review suggests that the extent to which farmers are aware of climate change is uneven, and the link between perception and action is often unclear. Farmers adopt a range of strategies from financial responses, to agricultural changes, to religious and cultural strategies, to the use of local and wider support networks. However, whether these actions are adaptation or coping strategies is debatable. Response to climate change has both spatial and temporal dimensions; and a host of socio-economic factors (e.g., lack of resources, gender or cultural identities) influence adaptation strategies. Finally, these adaptation strategies can be seen as nested within broadly defined livelihood strategies.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12180
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gec3.12180/pdf
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Mertz O, Mbow C, Reenberg A et al. Adaptation strategies and climate vulnerability in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa[J]. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2011, 12(1): 104-108.Rural development in the Sudano-Sahelian region during the past 20 years and future scenarios of change were studied using meta-analysis of case studies, household interviews and scenario assessment. Households have generally increased their wealth, especially when they diversify out of agriculture. Rain-fed crop cultivation is more sensitive to climate factors than livestock, but generally climate factors play a limited direct role for local land use and livelihood strategies. The agricultural sector needs strong support to remain important in the region and off-farm work and migration are likely to continue to increase, which may decrease vulnerability. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.314
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.314/pdf
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Mercer J.Disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation: are we reinventing the wheel?[J]. Journal of International Development, 2010, 22(2): 247-264.Abstract Disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies and strategies are well established within the international development community, being utilised at the grassroots level to address all forms of hazards. An exacerbation and increase in meteorological hazards has in part been attributed to climate change. Climate change also contributes to noticeable seasonal fluctuations that severely affect natural resource based livelihoods. In response, a need in development policy has been identified to address climate change at the community level by helping those most affected through ‘climate change adaptation’ (CCA) strategies. This paper explores the differences—or, rather, the similarities—between DRR and CCA through analysing climate-related DRR in Papua New Guinea (PNG) within the context of wider development policies. Ways forward are identified for international development policy supporting all forms of risk reduction through integrating DRR and CCA strategies. Copyright 08 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1677
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.1677/full
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陆大道. 中国地理学的发展与全球变化研究[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(2): 147-156.10年来中国地理学研究领域发生了巨大变化,主要表现在大规模地参与了全球变化研究.本文阐述了全球变化的主要研究议题及地理学者可能起到的作用,认为中国长期高速经济增长引起的环境变化比大气层增温的影响大得多,一系列与此有关的重大区域性问题应该得到地理学者的广泛重视.文中还指出了地理学者在全球变化研究中的值得注意的倾向.
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-8477.2003.09.048
http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dlxb201102001.aspx
[Lu Dadao.Development of geographical sciences and research on global change in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(2): 147-156.]
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方修琦, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(11): 1291-1298.
[Fang Xiuqi, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng.Historical climate change impact-response processes under the framework of food security in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(11): 61291-1298.]
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The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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国家自然科学基金项目( 41371527)
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