| 海州湾岸线蚀淤演变及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孔德旋, 张存勇, 侯建康. 海州湾岸线蚀淤演变及预测[J]. 海洋地质前沿, 2024, 40(2): 28-36. doi: 10.16028/j.1009-2722.2022.241 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孔德旋 张存勇 侯建康 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.江苏海洋大学海洋技术与测绘学院，连云港 222005 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省重点研发计划项目（BE2018676）；;江苏省研究生实践创新计划项目（CX116410859）； |
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| 摘 要： | 基于2013—2021年间海州湾18期Lansat 8遥感影像，利用海岸线类型多样性指数、岸线变化率（EPR）和净海岸移动量（NSM）对海州湾各类型岸线蚀淤演变情况进行分析，并基于Prophet时间序列预测模型对2025年岸线进行定量预测。结果表明，9年间基岩岸线整体较稳定；琴岛栈桥到临洪河口淤泥质岸线不稳定，岸线明显向海淤积；砂质岸线整体较稳定，无明显蚀淤倾向。预测2025年海州湾淤泥质岸线呈向海延伸趋势，临洪河口附近岸线呈向海延伸趋势，其余岸线均无明显淤蚀变化，较为稳定。
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| 关 键 词： | 海州湾 遥感 海岸线 岸线变化率 净海岸移动量 Prophet时间序列预测模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-09-01 |
Evolution and prediction of shoreline erosion and siltation in Haizhou Bay |
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| KONG Dexuan, ZHANG Cunyong, HOU Jiankang. Evolution and prediction of shoreline erosion and siltation in Haizhou Bay[J]. Marine Geology Frontiers, 2024, 40(2): 28-36. doi: 10.16028/j.1009-2722.2022.241 |
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| Authors: | KONG Dexuan ZHANG Cunyong HOU Jiankang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Marine Technology and Geomatics, Jiangsu Ocean University, Lianyungang 222005, China |
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| Abstract: | The Lansat 8 remote sensing images of Haizhou Bay, Jiangsu, East China, in nine years from 2013 to 2021 were selected to analyze the evolution of erosion and siltation of various types of coastlines in Haizhou Bay in terms of the diversity index of coastline types, shoreline change rate (EPR), and net coastal movement (NSM) of coastline changes in the nine years, and qualitatively predict the coastline of 2025 based on the Prophet model. Results show that the bedrock shoreline was relatively stable as a whole in the past nine years, the muddy shoreline from Qindao pier to Linhong River mouth was unstable with obvious oceanward siltation, and the sandy shoreline was relatively stable as a whole with no obvious erosion and siltation tendency. It is predicted that in 2025, the muddy shoreline of Haizhou Bay and the shoreline in Linhong River mouth will extend seaward, and the remaining shorelines will be relatively stable without obvious siltation and erosion changes. |
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| Keywords: | Haizhou Bay remote sensing coastline EPR NSM Prophet model |
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