| 气象因素对自贡市呼吸道传染病的影响与预警技术研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨荣国,张正东,罗伟,等. 气象因素对自贡市呼吸道传染病的影响与预警技术研究[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2016, 36(2): 92-95. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184·2016.02.015 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨荣国 张正东 罗伟 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省自贡市气象局, 自贡 643000; |
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| 摘 要： | 为探讨气象要素变化对呼吸道传染病发生的影响,本文利用2009~2013年自贡市疾病预防控制中心呼吸道传染病病例资料和自贡市地面气象观测站的气象资料,对呼吸道传染病与气象因素的关系进行相关性分析,得出了自贡地区呼吸道传染病发病人数的时空变化规律;采用多要素回归积分法建立自贡市呼吸道传染病四季医疗气象预报模型,通过检验该预报模式稳定性较好,将为自贡市各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 回归积分 呼吸道传染病 气象条件 预警技术 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-04-20 |
Effects of Meteorological Factors on Respiratory Diseases and Research on Early Warning Technology in Zigong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Zigong Bureau of Meteorology, Zigong 643000, China;2. Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zigong 643000, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to investigate the influence of meteorological factors on the occurrence of respiratory tract infections,Utilizing the data of respiratory infectious disease cases of Zigong Disease Control and Prevention Center and meteorological observatory of Zigong Ground-based Stations from 2009 to 2013. Analyse the correlated relationship between respiratory diseases and meteorological conditions,to obtain the changing rules of the number of respiratory diseases in Zigong region. Multi-factor regression integral methods are adopted to establish the Zigong respiratory disease medical meteorological forecast models in four seasons,By examining the forecast model stability is better,providing scientific basises for Zigong Disease Control and Prevention Centers at all levels to guide the urban and rural residents of health and epidemic prevention. |
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