| 基于Fisher判别法的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 周伟,邓玖林. 基于Fisher判别法的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(3): 392-400. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.03.009 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周伟 邓玖林 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川成都 610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC1501004）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41572300） |
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| 摘 要： | 对台风暴雨泥石流发生的可能性进行定量预测,有助于减少危险区内的人员伤亡、降低经济损失。以台湾地区南投县陈有兰溪流域的47条泥石流沟为研究对象,从泥石流形成所需的地形地貌、物源和降雨条件中,初步选取台风暴雨泥石流发生的影响因子,包括沟床平均坡度、有效流域面积、形状系数、主沟长度、岩性、崩滑比和平均雨强。根据因子重要性排序结果,选择崩滑比和平均雨强作为模型的预测因子,基于Fisher判别法建立了台风暴雨泥石流预测模型。采用随机取样技术,选取70%的数据用于构建模型,剩余30%的数据用于验证模型。以精确度、准确率、漏报率和误报率指标,定量评价模型的预测效果,并确定最优的预测模型。结果表明:基于Fisher判别法构建的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型,综合考虑了泥石流形成所需的物源条件和降雨条件,弥补了降雨阈值模型仅依靠降雨资料分析的不足,预测效果更好。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨泥石流 Fisher判别法 特征选择方法 陈有兰溪流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-08-29 |
Predictive model of typhoon-induced debris flow based on Fisher discriminant analysis |
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| ZHOU Wei,DENG Jiulin. Predictive model of typhoon-induced debris flow based on Fisher discriminant analysis[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2019, 30(3): 392-400. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2019.03.009 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Wei DENG Jiulin |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China |
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| Abstract: | Prediction of typhoon-induced debris flow can help to reduce casualties and losses. This study focused on 47 debris flow catchments of the Chenyulan River Watershed in Nantou County,Taiwan,China. Seven variables-mean channel slope,effective drainage area,shape coefficient,channel length,lithology,area ratio of collapses and landslides,and mean rainfall intensity-were selected from the conditioning factors of rainfall-induced debris flow,including geomorphology,loose debris materials and rainfall conditions. According to the importance of these variables,the area ratio of collapses and landslides as well as the mean rainfall intensity were used to construct the predictive model. Random sampling selection was used to divide the dataset into the training and validation datasets (70% and 30% of the dataset,respectively). The former was used to develop the predictive model and the latter to validate the model. Four indicators,namely precision,accuracy,false negative rate,and false position rate,were employed as indexes of quantitative assessment and used to determine the optimal model. The results show that the prediction model of typhoon-induced debris flow based on Fisher discriminant analysis has good prediction performance,and it compensated for the deficiency of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds model that analyze critical rainfall of debris flow based only on rainfall data. A comparison of the predictions of the I-D model and our model indicated that ours had superior prediction performance. The results provide strong technical support for the prediction of rainfall-induced debris flow. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon-induced debris flow Fisher discriminant analysis feature selection Chenyulan River watershed |
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