| 2001-2020年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张维然,王仁涛. 2001-2020年上海市地面沉降灾害经济损失评估[J]. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(6): 870-874 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张维然 王仁涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200092;同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科技发展基金资助项目(012512030)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 地面沉降是加速潮灾、涝灾等自然灾害的风险源.由于上海市市政建设和高层建筑的建设以及周边地区继续抽取地下水的影响,地面沉降趋势仍在继续.这使上海市在未来必将遭受地面沉降灾害所产生的巨大经济损失.分析了上海市未来地面沉降灾害产生经济损失的可能性、损失程度等.通过对影响未来地面沉降灾害经济损失不确定因素的分析,运用统计方法评估了2001-2020年间上海市地面沉降灾害风险的经济损失.经评估,2001-2020年上海区地面沉降灾害风险经济损失总额为245.7亿元.
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| 关 键 词： | 地面沉降 经济损失 风险评估 上海市 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791（2005）06-0870-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-11-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-03-07 |
Risk evaluation of the economic losses induced by land subsidence in Shanghai from 2001 to 2020 |
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| ZHANG Wei-ran,WANG Ren-tao. Risk evaluation of the economic losses induced by land subsidence in Shanghai from 2001 to 2020[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2005, 16(6): 870-874 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei-ran WANG Ren-tao |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics & Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China |
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| Abstract: | Land subsidence is a kind of geological calamity caused by human activities.Shanghai is the earliest and the most effective city which applied various methods to control or arrest its land subsidence in China.Although the land subsidence has been arrested effectively,the tendency of land subsidence exists still in Shanghai because of its coastal environment and the continuous withdraw of underground water.This paper evaluates its possible losses based on the analysis of the factors which affect the economic losses induced by the land subsidence in the future.According to our risk evaluation,the economic losses caused by the land subsidence in Shanghai from 2001 to 2020 will be about $24.57 billion($2.97 billion). |
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| Keywords: | land subsidence economic losses risk evaluation Shanghai |
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