| 中国极端降水事件的区域性和持续性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 常煜, 隋沆锐, 赵斐. 2019: 内蒙古夏季极端降水持续性分析与时空分布特征. 暴雨灾害, 38(2): 161-168. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.02.008 |
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| 作者姓名： | 常煜 隋沆锐 赵斐 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市气象局, 呼伦贝尔 021008;2.内蒙古自治区气象台, 呼和浩特 010051 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2016-014）；内蒙古自治区气象局地方标准预研项目（201805） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用内蒙古地区117站1991-2013年夏季（6-8月）逐时降水量资料，采用Gumbel极值方法确定内蒙古逐时极端降水阈值，研究内蒙古夏季逐时极端降水持续性和演变特征。结果表明：（1）内蒙古地区逐时极端降水阈值自西（5~10 mm）向东（40~55 mm）递增，但极端降水过程相对强度自西向东逐渐递减。内蒙古西部偏南地区、阴山山脉以南和大兴安岭东部极端降水过程持续时间较长，在7 h以上，其余地区极端降水过程持续时间较短，在6 h以内。（2）持续时间在1~3 h的极端降水过程发生次数最高，极端降水过程持续时间越短，降水量峰值出现前降水强度越大。极端降水持续时间4~6 h降水量偏离程度最大，1~3 h和7~12 h次之。（3）近23 a极端降水过程集中出现在7月下旬，峰值出现时刻由17：00滞后到20：00。1991-2010年极端降水过程偏少，可能是因为4~6 h和7~12 h极端降水过程次数偏少；进入2011-2013年，极端降水过程增加明显，主要与持续时间1~3 h、4~6 h和7~12 h极端降水过程同时增多有关。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端降水 阈值 持续时间 演变特征 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-01-22 |
Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events:a brief review |
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| CHANG Yu, SUI Hang rui, ZHAO Fei. 2019: Analysis on duration and temporal and spatical distribution characteristics of hourly extreme rainfall in summer in Inner Mongolia. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(2): 161-168. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.02.008 |
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| Authors: | CHANG Yu SUI Hang rui ZHAO Fei |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Hulun Buir Meteorological Bureau, Hulun Buir 021008;2.Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051 |
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| Abstract: | Using hourly precipitation data at 117 national stations in summer from June to August during 1991-2013 in Inner Mongolia, the threshold value of hourly extreme rainfall process (HERP) was defined by the Gumbel threshold method. Duration and temporal and spatical distribution characteristics of HERP was studied in summer in Inner Mongolia. The results show that:(1) the threshold value of HERP increases from western regions (5-10 mm·h-1) to eastern regions (40-55 mm·h-1), while relative intensity of HERP decreases from western regions to eastern regions. There is a longer duration than 7 h in the southwest region, in the south region of Yinshan mountain and in the east region of Greater Khingan Range mountain rage in Inner Mongolia, while HERP lasts for a relatively short time (within 6 h) in the remaining region. (2) HERP of 1-3 h duration has the highest frequency. The shorter duration of HERP, the stronger the precipitation intensity is before the peak value of HERP occurs. HERP of 4-6 h duration has the maximum deviation, and the second are 1-3 h and 7-12 h duration of HERP. (3) HERP occurs mainly in the late July and the peak value of HERP delays from 17:00 to 20:00 in recently 23 years. HERP is relatively low from 1990 to 2010, which likely caused that the HERP of 4-6 h and 7-12 h durations are less frequently observed. HERP increases obviously during 2011-2013, which probably causes that the HERP of 1-3 h, 4-6 h and 7-12 h durations increase at the same time. |
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| Keywords: | hourly extreme rainfall threshold value duration time evolution characteristics |
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