| GRAPES_GFS在东亚地区中期预报技巧极端下降现象的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈哲文,沈学顺,苏勇. GRAPES_GFS在东亚地区中期预报技巧极端下降现象的初步研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 2021, 37(2): 245-257. DOI: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2021.023 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈哲文 沈学顺 苏勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京100081;国家气象中心,北京100081;国家气象中心,北京100081;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081;国家气象中心,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划“高精度可扩展数值天气预报模式研究”2017YFC1501904 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2016年4月1日-2018年12月31日GRAPES_GFS模式的业务预报数据,将GRAPES_GFS模式在东亚地区144小时预报500 hPa高度场的距平相关系数小于0.4,均方根误差大于60 gpm的事件定义为模式在东亚地区的中期预报技巧极端下降事件,据此标准筛选出29个个例进行了研究.结果表明,GRAPES...
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| 关 键 词： | 中期预报技巧极端下降 GRAPES_GFS 距平相关系数 东亚预报误差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-28 |
A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST BUSTS OF GRAPES_GFS IN EAST ASIA |
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| SHEN Zhe-wen,SHEN Xue-shun,SU Yong. A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST BUSTS OF GRAPES_GFS IN EAST ASIA[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2021, 37(2): 245-257. DOI: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2021.023 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Zhe-wen SHEN Xue-shun SU Yong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China2.National Meteorological Centre of CMA, Beijing 100081, China3.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The"forecast bust"of GRAPES_GFS is investigated over the East Asian area by using the operational forecast data of GRAPES_GFS model during the period from April 1, 2016 to December 31, 2018. The"forecast bust"is defined as the cases when the area-averaged root mean square error (RMSE) of the day-6 forecast of geopotential height at 500hPa exceeds 60 gpm, as well as the its anomaly correlation being less than 0.4. According to this definition, the 29 cases have been identified. Of which, the high incidence of GRAPES_GFS medium-range forecast busts in East Asia is mainly in spring and autumn, with spring and autumn accounting for 31.03% and 41.38%, respectively. The medium-range forecast busts of GRAPES_GFS model in East Asia is usually manifested in the failure of the forecast of the East Asian trough, the Siberian trough, the Siberian ridge and the subtropical high. The composite of forecast errors in the four seasons are closely related to the forecast errors of the main weather systems that affect East Asia during that season. Further case studies have shown that the sources of errors in the forecast busts in East Asia exhibit different characteristics in different seasons. The forecast errors in winter and summer come from high latitude polar region, which are mostly related to the large forecast errors of the model in the polar region; the forecast errors in spring and autumn mainly come from the upstream areas, which are related to the propagation of the model's upstream forecast errors to the downstream. In addition, the failure of the model to properly forecast typhoon activity is also one of the sources of forecast errors. |
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