| 天山北坡西部树木年轮对气候因子的响应分析及气温重建 |
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| 引用本文： | 喻树龙,袁玉江,魏文寿,尚华明,张同文,童忠,杜敏. 天山北坡西部树木年轮对气候因子的响应分析及气温重建[J]. 中国沙漠, 2008, 28(5): 827-832 |
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| 作者姓名： | 喻树龙 袁玉江 魏文寿 尚华明 张同文 童忠 杜敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所/中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002; 2.新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054; 3.哈密气象局, 新疆 哈密 839000; 4.乌鲁木齐气象局/新疆兴农网信息中心, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技基础性工作专项项目，公益性行业(气象)科研专项，科技部社会公益研究项目，中国气象局重点实验室开放研究项目，中国沙漠气象科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用博尔塔拉蒙古自治州三个采点的树轮宽度年表,通过相关和响应面分析的方法,分析三个树木年轮宽度对气候因子的响应。分析表明,三个年表与博州地区的年平均最低气温和7月降水量呈较显著的正相关,且呈现相同的响应,仅在气温偏低时,三个年表响应不一致。通过分析,选择年最低气温作为重建对象,具有明显的树木生理学意义。利用树轮年表重建了博州1576—2002年的年最低气温,通过逐一剔除检验,发现重建值稳定可靠。在427 a中,存在2~3 a和40~50 a左右的周期性振荡,1631年、1832年 、1920年和1961年左右发生过突变。
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| 关 键 词： | 天山北坡西部 树木年轮 年最低气温 响应 气温重建 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-08-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-10-02 |
Response of Tree-ring to Climate Change and Temperature Reconstruction in West of Tianshan Mountains North Slope |
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| YU Shu-long,YUAN Yu-jiang,WEI Wen-shou,SHANG Hua-ming,ZHANG Tong-wen,TONG Zhong,DU Min. Response of Tree-ring to Climate Change and Temperature Reconstruction in West of Tianshan Mountains North Slope[J]. ournal of Desert Research, 2008, 28(5): 827-832 |
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| Authors: | YU Shu-long YUAN Yu-jiang WEI Wen-shou SHANG Hua-ming ZHANG Tong-wen TONG Zhong DU Min |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Desert and Meteorology; Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research, CMA, Urumqi 830002, China; 2.School of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjing Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China; 3.Hami Meteorology Bureau, Hami 839000, Xinjiang, China; 4.Urumqi Meteorological Bureau; Xinjiang Xingnong-Net Information Center, Urumqi 830002, China |
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| Abstract: | The Boertala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture is located on the western Tianshan Mountains' north slope, belonging to the semi-arid area of Northwest China. Three tree-ring increment cores of Picea schrenkiana Var tiansclhanica were sampled from the upper tree lines in Boertala. Three standardized chronologies were developed by using a 100-year Spline Function. Single correlation analyzing result indicated that the relations were significant among the three tree-ring width chronologies and climate factors; the greatest coefficient (R=0.512) is relation with annual minimum temperature, and that with precipitation in July is 0.456, their significance are all greater than the 99.9 percent level. Response analysis proved the same correlation between tree-ring chronologies and annual minimum temperature and precipitation in July. On the basis of the three standardized chronologies the series of annual minimum temperature in Boertala from 1576 to 2002 was reconstructed. Considering the hysteresis of tree growth against temperature, a average annual minimum temperature series was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 60.7%. Tested by the Leave-One-Out Method it was verified that the reconstructed temperature series was reliable. The temperature change in the 427 years showed obvious vibration periods of 2~3 years and 40~50 years, and has experienced abrupt change in 1631,1832,1920,1961. |
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| Keywords: | west of Tianshan Mountains north slope tree-ring chronology minimum temperature response relationship temperature reconstruction |
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