The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s |
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| Authors: | Guowei Zheng Yang Li Quanliang Chen Xin Zhou Guolu Gao Minggang Li Ting Duan |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China;2. Fushun Meteorological Observatory, Liaoning Meteorological Bureau, Fushun, China;3. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK;4. Ya''an Meteorological Observatory, Sichuan Meteorological Bureau, Ya''an, China;5. Plateau and Basin Rainstorm, Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China |
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| Abstract: | Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide. Southwest China (SWC) is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation, underdevelopment, and fragile ecosystems. Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations, the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970s. Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly, but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly, whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant, about 60% of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. Furthermore, there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation, with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region. The results carry important implications for policymakers, who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.摘要本文分析了中国西南20世纪70年代末以来极端降水事件的频率, 强度及其对总降水的贡献. 结果表明, 该地区约60%的降水站点极端降水的频率和强度正在增加, 而大多数站点总降水频率明显减少. 同时极端降水总量对总降水量的贡献有显著增加的趋势, 极端降水在日益干旱的中国西南地区变得更具主导性. 研究结果提醒应更加重视极端降水及其可能引发的次生灾害, 如洪水, 山体滑坡等. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme precipitation Southwest China Trend Frequency Intensity 关键词: 极端降水 中国西南 趋势 降水频率 降水强度 |
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