多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb201611009

PDF(5155 KB)

地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (11) : 1979-1997. DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201611009

土地利用

多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟

邓华¹(), 邵景安^2,³(), 王金亮¹, 高明¹, 魏朝富¹

作者信息 +

Land use driving forces and its future scenario simulation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area using CLUE-S model

Hua DENG¹(), Jing'an SHAO^2,³(), Jinliang WANG¹, Ming GAO¹, Chaofu WEI¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

模型模拟和情景变化分析是未来土地利用变化研究的核心内容,本文以2000年三峡库区土地利用现状为基期数据,利用Binary Logistic模型回归分析驱动因子与土地利用间的关系,利用CLUE-S模型对2010年土地利用进行模拟,校验并确定影响库区土地利用驱动因素的主要参数后,基于自然增长、粮食安全、移民建设和生态保护对2020年、2030年库区土地利用情景予以模拟。结果表明：① 通过Binary Logistic模型分析和检验,水田、旱地、林地、草地、建设用地和水域的ROC曲线下面积值均大于0.8,表明所选驱动因子对土地利用的解释能力较强,可用来估算土地利用概率分布;② 2010年各地类模拟结果经验证得Kappa系数分别为水田0.9、旱地0.92、林地0.97、草地0.84、建设用地0.85和水域0.77,总体上能满足模拟与预测需求;③ 多情景模拟显示库区不同土地利用类型在空间上的竞争关系,以及所带来的对库区粮食安全、移民建设、生态保护的影响,包括水田大量转换为旱地（“水改旱”）、耕地与林草地被建设占用、林草地开垦为耕地、陡坡耕地退为林草地等行为,需要在土地利用优化中平衡各方面的需求;④ 多因素、多情景模拟能为库区土地利用提供更为清晰的、可供抉择的政策调控思路。

Abstract

Model simulation and scenarios change analysis are the core contents of the future land use change study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorge Reservoir Area (TGRA) in 1990 were used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land use was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting driving factors of land use in the TGRA, land use of the TGRA in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, emigrant construction and ecological protection. The results were shown as follows: (1) The areas under ROC curves of land use types were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These land use types include paddy field, dry land, forestland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution. (2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land use simulation in 2010, were showed of paddy field 0.9, dry land 0.95, forestland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction. (3) The results of multi-scenarios simulation show a spatial competition relationship between different land use types, and an influence on food security, emigrant construction and ecological protection in the TGRA, including some land use change such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dry land, the occupation of cultivated land, rapid expansion of construction land from forestland and grassland, the reclamation of cultivated land to forestland and grassland, the conversion of forestland and grassland to cultivated land. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, so as to achieve the coordination between social economy and ecological environment.

导出引用

邓华, 邵景安, 王金亮, 高明, 魏朝富. 多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1979-1997 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201611009

Hua DENG, Jing'an SHAO, Jinliang WANG, Ming GAO, Chaofu WEI. Land use driving forces and its future scenario simulation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area using CLUE-S model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(11): 1979-1997 https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201611009

参考文献

[1]	Long H L, Wu X Q, Wang W J, et al.Analysis of urban-rural land-use change during 1995-2006 and its policy dimensional driving forces in Chongqing, China. Sensors, 2008, 8: 681-699.
[2]	Zhang J X, Liu Z J, Sun X X.Changing landscape in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Yangtze River from 1977 to 2005: Land use/land cover, vegetation cover changes estimated using multi-source satellite data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2009, 11(6): 403-412.
[3]	Zhang Q F, Lou Z P.The environmental changes and mitigation actions in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Environmental Science & Policy, 2011, 14(8): 1132-1138.
[4]	Jabbar M T, Shi Z H, Wang T W, et al.Vegetation change prediction with geo-information techniques in the Three Gorges Area of China. Pedosphere, 2006, 16(4): 457-467.
[5]	Zeng Fanhai, Zhang Yong, Zhang Sheng, et al.Research on land utilization change of Wanzhou District based on RS and GIS in recent 22 years. Environment and Ecology in the Three Gorges, 2011, 33(3): 43-46.
[5]	[曾凡海, 张勇, 张晟, 等. 基于RS与GIS的三峡库区万州区近22年土地利用变化. 三峡生态与环境, 2011, 33(3): 43-46.]
[6]	Ni J P, Shao J A.The drivers of land use change in the migration area, Three Gorges Project, China: Advances and prospects. Journal of Earth Science, 24(1): 136-144.
[7]	Wu J G, Huang J H, Han X G, et al.Three Gorges Dam: Experiment in habitat fragmentation? Science, 2003, 300(5623): 1239-1240.
[8]	Morgan T K K B, Sardelic D N, Waretini A F. The Three Gorges Project: How sustainable? Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 460/461(16): 1-12.
[9]	Liu Yansui, Feng Dexian.Sustainable potential and models of land usein the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(2): 139-145.
[9]	[刘彦随, 冯德显. 三峡库区土地持续利用潜力与途径模式. 地理研究, 2001, 20(2): 139-145.]
[10]	Shao Huaiyong, Xian Wei, Yang Wunian, et al.Landuse/cover change during lately 50 years in Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 19(2): 453-458.
[10]	[邵怀勇, 仙巍, 杨武年, 等. 三峡库区近50年间土地利用/覆被变化. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(2): 453-458.]
[11]	Shao Jingan, Zhang Shichao, Wei Chaofu.Remote sensing analysis of land use change in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on the construction phase of large-scale water conservancy project. Geographical Research, 2013, 23(12):2189-2203.
[11]	[邵景安, 张仕超, 魏朝富. 基于大型水利工程建设阶段的三峡库区土地利用变化遥感分析. 地理研究, 2013, 23(12): 2189-2203.]
[12]	Liu Qicheng, Xiong Wenqiang, Han Guifeng.Tendency forecast of Three Gorge land using by means of Markov. Journal of Chongqing University (Natural Science Edition), 2005, 28(2): 107-110.
[12]	[刘启承, 熊文强, 韩贵锋. 用马尔可夫理论预测三峡库区的土地利用趋势. 重庆大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 28(2): 107-110.]
[13]	Cao Yingui, Wang Jing, Tao Jia, et al.Simulating regional land use change based on CA and AO. Progress in Geography, 2007, 26(3): 88-95.
[13]	[曹银贵, 王静, 陶嘉, 等. 基于CA与AO 的区域土地利用变化模拟研究: 以三峡库区为例. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26(3): 88-95.]
[14]	Dong Lixin, Wu Bingfang, Guo Zhenhua, et al.Remote sensing monitor and simulation prediction of cultivated and woody land changes for Three-Gorges Reservoir region. Transactions of the CSAE, 2009, 25(Suppl. 2): 290-297.
[14]	[董立新, 吴炳方, 郭振华, 等. 三峡库区农林用地变化遥感监测及模拟预测. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(增刊2): 290-297.]
[15]	Li Yangbin, Shao Jingan, Li Yuechen.Resources, environment and ecology in Three Gorges Area the status and prospect of land use/land cover changes in Three Gorges Reservoir area. Journal of Chongqing Normal University (Natural Science), 2010, 27(2): 31-35.
[15]	[李阳兵, 邵景安, 李月臣. 三峡库区土地利用/土地覆被变化研究现状与展望. 重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 27(2): 31-35.]
[16]	Wang Riming, Xiong Xingyao, Xiao Yang.Simulation of land use spatial pattern change on county scale of Yongchuan District in Chongqing. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2014, 30(35): 166-171.
[16]	[王日明, 熊兴耀, 肖洋. 重庆市永川区土地利用空间格局变化模拟. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(35): 166-171.]
[17]	Mao Hanying, Gao Qun, Feng Renguo.The selection of pillar industries under the ecologically and environmentally friendly principles in Three Gorges Area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002, 57(5): 553-560.
[17]	[毛汉英, 高群, 冯仁国. 三峡库区生态环境约束下的支柱产业选择. 地理学报, 2002, 57(5): 553-560.]
[18]	Luo G P, Yin C Y, Chen X, et al.Combining system dynamic model and CLUE-S model to improve land use scenario analyses at regional scale: A case study of Sangong watershed in Xinjiang, China. Ecological Complexity, 2010(7): 198-207.
[19]	Wu Guiping, Zeng Yongnian, Zou Bing, et al.Simulation on spatial land use patterns using AutoLogistic method: A case study of Yongding County, Zhangjiajie. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(2): 156-164.
[19]	[吴桂平, 曾永年, 邹滨, 等. AutoLogistic方法在土地利用格局模拟中的应用: 以张家界市永定区为例. 地理学报, 2008, 63(2): 156-164.]
[20]	Wu G P, Zeng Y N, Xiao P F, et al.Using autologistic spatial models to simulate the distribution of land-use patterns in Zhangjiajie, Hunan Province. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(2): 310-320.
[21]	He F L, Zhou J L, Zhu H T.Autologistic regression model for the distribution of vegetation. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 2003, 8(2): 205-222.
[22]	Verburg P H, de Nijs T C M, van Eck J R, et al. A method to analyse neighbourhood characteristics of land use patterns. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2004, 28(6): 667-690.
[23]	Pontius J, Laura C S.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2001, 85(1-3): 239-248.
[24]	Chen Y L, Huang C S, Liu J Y.Statistical evidences of seismo-ionospheric precursors applying receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve on the GPS total electron content in China. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 2015, 114(15): 393-402.
[25]	Verburg P H, Eickhout B, van Meijl H. A multi-scale, multi-model approach for analyzing the future dynamics of European land use. The Annals of Regional Science, 2008, 42(1): 57-77.
[26]	Verburg P H, Berkel van D B, Doorn van A. M., et al. Trajectories of land use change in Europe: A model-based exploration of rural futures. Landscape Ecology, 2010, 25: 217-232.
[27]	Verburg P H, Overmars K P.Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: Exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecology, 2009, 24: 1167-1181.
[28]	Zheng H W, Shen G Q, Hao W, et al.Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong. Habitat International, 2015, 46: 23-34.
[29]	Verburg P H.Tutorial CLUE-S and DYNA-CLUE. Handbook of CLUE-s Model. 2008.
[30]	Liu Miao, Hu Yuanman, Chang Yu, et al.Analysis of temporal predict in abilities for the CLUE-S land use model. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(11): 6110-6119.
[30]	[刘淼, 胡远满, 常禹, 等. 土地利用模型时间尺度预测能力分析: 以CLUE-S模型为例. 生态学报, 2009, 29(11): 6110-6119.]
[31]	Peng Li.Study on land use change and land usestructure optimiztion in Three Gorges Reservoir area [D]. Wuhan: Huazhong Agricultural University, 2013.
[31]	[彭丽. 三峡库区土地利用变化及结构优化研究[D]. 武汉: 华中农业大学, 2013.]
[32]	Li Jianguo, Pu Lijie, Liu Jinping, et al.The temporal and spatial characteristics of vegetation activity in Three Gorges Reservoir area (Chongqing) from 2001 to 2010 and its influencing factors. Resources Science, 2013, 34(8): 1500-1507.
[32]	[李建国, 濮励杰, 刘金萍, 等. 2001年至2010年三峡库区重庆段植被活动时空特征及其影响因素. 资源科学, 2012, 34(8): 1500-1507.]
[33]	Shen G Z, Xie Z Q.Three Gorges Project: Chance and challenge. Science, 2004, 304(30): 681.
[34]	Wang X W, Chen Y, Song L C, et al.Analysis of lengths, water areas and volumes of the Three Gorges Reservoir at different water levels using Landsat images and SRTM DEM data. Quaternary International, 2013, 304(5): 115-125.
[35]	Xiu X B, Tan Y, Yang G S.Environmental impact assessments of the Three Gorges Project in China: Issues and interventions. Earth-Science Reviews, 2013, 124: 115-125.
[36]	Shao Jingan, Zhang Shichao, Li Xiubin.Farmland marginalization in the mountainous areas: Characteristics, influencing factors and policy implications. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(6): 701-722.
[37]	Shao Jingan, Zhang Shichao, Li Xiubin.The role of rural farmland transfer in preventing farmland abandonment in the mountainous areas. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(4): 436-649.
[37]	[邵景安, 张仕超, 李秀彬. 山区土地流转对缓解耕地撂荒的作用. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 636-649.]
[38]	Development and construction control provisions of "Sishan" area in Chongqing. Bulletin of the People's Government of Chongqing Municipality, 2007.
[38]	[重庆市“四山”地区开发建设管制规定. 重庆市人民政府公报, 2007.]