台风“利奇马”不同区域降水极端性特征及成因分析
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P458.121

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国家重点研究发展计划项目(2017YFC1502004;2018YFC1506606);国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201926)


Analysis on characteristics of the extreme precipitation of typhoon “Lekima”
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    摘要:

    利用常规气象观测资料、卫星及雷达拼图以及NCEP分辨率为1°×1°的再分析资料,对浙江和山东两个区域不同的极端降水特征及其成因进行诊断对比分析。结果表明:浙江极端降水表现出"高效"的热带降水系统特征,山东极端降水是一次长时间,中等强度的"大陆锋面型"降水。台风近海对称性和对流明显增强;同时,其西北行移速较同期台风偏慢,导致行进方向上长时间受螺旋雨带影响;受超强台风厚实云墙影响,登陆前后浙江等地风雨激增;另外,双台风及沿海山地地形对浙江降水有增幅作用。而山东地区主要受台风北侧稳定维持倒槽和西风槽结合影响,出现极端降水。敏感性分析发现山东降水和台风"第一象限"低层偏南急流强度相关性好,而台风环流持续维持、高度场的密集梯度及降水的潜热反馈共同导致低层急流(>20 m·s-1)长时间维持;同时,西风带高空槽和台风倒槽势力相当,形成稳定"锋区";锋前多条带状对流持续向北发展,形成"列车效应";后期冷空气侵入台风中心后山东北侧依然维持较好环流配置。上述条件共同维持了山东地区持续性的较强"锋面降水"。副高、西风槽及台风环流的强度对比是本轮台风降水预报的关键因素。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the conventional meteorological observation data, satellite and radar data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data are used to diagnose and analyze these two different extreme precipitation characteristics in the above two regions. The extreme precipitation in Zhejiang shows the characteristics of the typical tropical precipitation system. The extreme precipitation in Shandong is a long-term, medium-intensity "continental frontal" precipitation. The typhoon's symmetry and intensity are obviously enhanced. At the same time, moving speed is slower than that of other typhoons during the same period, which leads to the long-term influence of the spiral rainband in the direction of typhoon. Under the influence of the super strong typhoon cloud wall, the wind and rain in Zhejiang rapidly increase. In addition, the double typhoon and coastal mountainous terrain have an increasing effect on precipitation. The extreme precipitation in Shandong area is mainly affected by the combination of inverted trough and the west upper trough on the north side of typhoon. Sensitivity analysis find that the precipitation of Shandong Province has a good correlation with the intensity of the southerly jet, while the continuous maintenance of the typhoon circulation, high gradient of the height field and the latent heat feedback of the precipitation together lead to the low-level jet (>20 m·s-1). At the same time, the west upper trough and the typhoon trough are nearly equivalent, forming a stable "front area", in front of which multiple convections continue to develop, forming a "train effect", lately cold air invades the northeast side of the typhoon center, however good circulation still maintains in the north part of typhoon. The above conditions consistently maintained a strong "frontal precipitation" in Shandong region. The comparison of the strength of Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH), westerly upper trough and the typhoon circulation is the key factor in the current typhoon precipitation forecast.

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郭云谦,王毅,沈越婷,杨舒楠,陈涛,宫宇.台风“利奇马”不同区域降水极端性特征及成因分析.气象科学,2020,40(1):65-77 GUO Yunqian, WANY Yi, SHEN Yueting, YANG Shunan, CHEN Tao, GONG Yu. Analysis on characteristics of the extreme precipitation of typhoon “Lekima”. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2020,40(1):65-77

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-26
  • 最后修改日期:2019-11-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-16
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