| 相空间重构神经网络在洪水灾害损失预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹连海,曹波,陈南祥,徐建新.相空间重构神经网络在洪水灾害损失预报中的应用[J].地球科学与环境学报,2006,28(2):89-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹连海 曹波 陈南祥 徐建新 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院,岩土工程系,河南,郑州,450008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863项目(2002AAZZ4291)，2005年度河南省高校杰出科研人才创新工程项目(HAIPURT)(2005KYCX015) |
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| 摘 要： | 在灾害领域中引入混沌理论,将相空间重构理论与神经网络相结合,提出了洪灾成灾面积预测模型。通过相空间重构,把一维成灾面积时间序列拓展为多维序列,而多维序列包含着各态历经的信息,从而可挖掘更为丰富的信息,有利于神经网络的训练。利用神经网络模型可以较好地求解非线性问题,因而使预测结果更符合实际。实例表明,该模型预报精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 相空间重构 神经网络 洪水灾害损失 预报模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-6561（2006）02-0089-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月13日 |
Application of Phase Space Reconstruction and Neural Network in Flood Disaster Losing Forcasting |
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| CAO Lian-hai,CAO Bo,CHEN Nan-xiang,XU Jian-xin.Application of Phase Space Reconstruction and Neural Network in Flood Disaster Losing Forcasting[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2006,28(2):89-92. |
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| Authors: | CAO Lian-hai CAO Bo CHEN Nan-xiang XU Jian-xin |
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| Institution: | Department of Geotechnical Engineering, North China College of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450008, Henan, China |
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| Abstract: | Introducing chaos theory in the disaster resources field,the forecasting models for the inundated area of flood disaster were brought forward integrating reconstruction of phase space and neural network.One-dimension inundated area series is developed to multi-dimension inundated area series with reconstruction of phase space,and the multi-dimension series include ergodic information,so that more abundant information can be found in favor of ANN training.With neural network,non-linear problem can be solved better,as a result,forecasting can accord well with practice even more.The example indicates that the model has highly forecasting precision. |
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| Keywords: | phase space reconstruction neural network flood disaster losing forecasting model |
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