基于Holt-Winters的电离层总电子含量预报

利用IGS中心提供的不同经纬度平静期、活跃期14 d的电离层TEC格网点数据，以前8 d的TEC值作为样本序列，分别采用Holt-Winters加法模型和乘法模型建立TEC预报模型，并预报后6 d的TEC值。结果表明，无论在电离层平静期还是活跃期，2种模型所得预报结果大致相同，并与实际观测数据吻合较好，但加法模型的预测结果能更好地反映电离层TEC的变化特性。

Ionospheric TEC Prediction Based on Holt-Winters Models

Using 14 days’ ionospheric TEC grid data provided by IGS center with different longitude and latitude at quiet and active period, taking the former 8 days’ TEC value as sample data, the prediction models of ionospheric TEC are set up using Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative model respectively. Afterwards, the established models are used to forecast the latter 6 days’ TEC value. The experimental results show that the prediction results of the two models are approximately the same and match well with the observation data, whether in ionospheric quiet or active periods. However, the Holt-Winters additive model can better reflect the changing characteristics of ionospheric TEC.