中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。

A Location Choice Model of Solar Heat Power Plant in China

Thirty percent of territory of China is desert and Gobi,where there is plenty of solar radiation.The potential power of solar energy of China is 50 times that of the Grand Three Gouges Hydraulic Power Station,or two times the total amount of electricity used in the year 2006,which would meet the expected total demand for electricity of the whole country in 2020.Where are the profitable candidate sites for the plants and the technique-economic properties of the sites ? Considering the distribution of land cover and the state of art techniques of power plant,we give an initial estimate of the cost of the solar heat electricity generation.Besides the direct normal solar radiation and landuse and technology,the media of power production such as water resources or solvable salt or gas,maintenance expense,spatial distribution of human and economic activities,environmental and ecological influence,investment and rewarding period have to be accounted in making a detailed estimation of the cost and benefit.Geographical information system,remote sensing,spatial statistics,econometrics and spatial operation are tools in the decision making system.This study proposes a conceptual decision making system of choosing sites for solar heat power plants and produces a draft map of direct normal solar radiation of the country based on the observed data and Cokriging technique,for providing one of the layers of the suitable sites for the plant location.Coal power,hydraulic power,nuclear power,solar energy power,wind power and biomass power use different types of lands and areas,the temporal steady and spatial distributions and working times of the various powers are obviously different;in another aspect,the demands for electricity are also heterogeneous in space and time.Accordingly,there is room to coordinate the demand and supply in space and time.