1990-2050年间贵州省东南部森林植被碳蓄积及固碳潜力分析

本文以贵州省东南部三州为研究区,运用连续生物量转换因子法和平均生物量法,通过2010年森林清查小班数据,建立了24类优势树种的森林植被碳密度与林龄之间的关系。同时,估算了1990-2010年间贵州省东南部森林植被生物量及其碳蓄积量,分析了碳蓄积量的时空变化特征,并预测出2050年该区域森林植被的固碳潜力。结果显示：（1）2010年贵州省东南部森林植被碳蓄积量为106.22 TgC,占贵州省森林植被碳蓄积量的63.01%,占全国森林植被碳蓄积量的1.36%;平均碳密度32.44 MgC/hm²,是贵州省森林植被平均碳密度的93%,全国森林植被平均碳密度的76%,碳密度空间分布呈现由西部向东部增加趋势且东部高于平均水平。（2）1990-2000年间森林植被碳蓄积量增加了30.67 TgC;2000-2010年间森林植被碳蓄积量增加了49.55 TgC,其中,退耕还林导致森林植被碳蓄积量增加了31.09 TgC。（3）以2010年为基准年,假设40 a后贵州省东南部森林面积保持稳定,且不考虑轮伐期的未来情景下,至2050年该区域森林植被碳蓄积量将达到153.38 TgC,其增量可达47.16 TgC,表明贵州省东南部森林具有较大的碳增汇潜力。

Forest Carbon Storage and Its Sequestration Potential in the Southeast of Guizhou Province During 1990-2050

In this paper, three prefectures in the southeast of Guizhou Province were selected as the study area. Using the method of biomass expansion factor and mean biomass, the relationships between carbon density and forest age for the 24 forest types was established. Then, the total amounts and change trends of the biomass and carbon storage of forest vegetation in the southeast of Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2010 was estimated based on forest investigation data in 2010. Furthermore, the carbon sequestration potential during the period of 2010-2050 was estimated by setting 2010 as the baseline and assuming that the area of forest vegetation remained stable and without consideration of forest rotation. The following conclusions were made in this study: (1) in 2010, the forest vegetation carbon storage in the southeast of Guizhou Province was 106.22 TgC, accounting for 63.01% carbon storage in Guizhou Province and 1.36% carbon storage in China; the average carbon density was 32.44 MgC/hm²,which was 0.93 times of the average value of Guizhou Province and 0.76 times of the average value of China. Meanwhile, the carbon density gradually increased from the west to the east. The carbon density in the east was higher than the average. (2) During the period of 1990-2000, the forest vegetation carbon storage had increased by 30.67 TgC. During the period of 2000-2010, the forest vegetation carbon storage had increased by 49.55 TgC, in which 31.09 TgC of the storage were contributed by conversion from farmland to forest. (3) Till 2050, the forest vegetation carbon storage in that area would be 153.38 TgC, which is increased by 47.16 TgC. This showed that the forest in the southeast of Guizhou Province had great carbon sequestration potential.