强震事件的在线预测技术——伽师-巴楚6.8级强震发生的后思考

20 0 3年 2月 2 4日新疆伽师--巴楚 6 .8级破坏性地震的发生 ,再次说明精细预测强震事件的重要性。本文以此次地震为例 ,提出一种预测地震事件的三要素新技术 ,即跟踪地震自激励演变信息预测震级大小、跟踪卫星遥感地表射出长波辐射 OL R信息预测地震危险区域、跟踪自然触发力因素信息预测临震时间。作者认为这种分要素、依序完成在线精细预测的方法是可行的。

On Line Prediction Technique to the Strong Earthquake Event--Thinking over Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake of M6.8

An earthquake(M6 8) occurred on Feb 24,2003 in Jiashi and Bachu counties of Xinjiang of China This earthquake(epicenter:N39 5°and E77 2°) produced many casualties,over 2000 injured and over 200 died, as well ten thousands of buildings destroy Its occurrence shows again the importance of precise prediction Taking this event as an example, the paper raises a new technique involving 3 elements for predicting earthquake,i e ,tracking each information in element order and step by step It's process as follows:The first step is the precise judgment of seismic intensity (magnitude) According to the “Gutenberg Law”, there existed a linear relationship bet ween the different seismic magnitudes(M) and the sequence number(N),i e , “Log N = a-bM” Because the seismic actions are of self exciting characteristic, so we can base on the historic seismic information and establish a self exciting mathematical model for predicting the forth or the next time earthquake magnitud e According to the result of modeling and calculating to Xinjiang of China, we can precisely predict out that an earthquake of M5 4 will occur in Xinjiang followed by an M6 8 strong earthquake event in 2003 The second step is the precise judgment of risk region A lot of investigations show that there exists heat radiation omen before a strong earthquake,especi ally in epicentral region How to moniter this thermal omen information before earthquake for judging risk region in short term,the paper suggested to use OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) information which comes from the NOAA satellite remote sensing As a result,we found that the most high value of monthly departure of OLR were present at the Jiashi epicenter region in January of 2003,and reached +21 9(W/m 2) which is not only the highest value in whole Xinjiang, but also breaks through the historic record The last step is the precise judgment of the imminent earthquake time A good many of investigations of earthquake in situ shows that the small pertubation in external factors, such as atmospheric pressure etc , can trigger the strong earthquake, especially at the imminence time We found that the pressure vari ograph (24 hours) at Jiashi epicentral region had changed +6 5(hp) on February 21,2003, i e , three days ahead of the Jiashi earthquake (M6 8) The process above mentioned is not only gradually reflecting earthquake preparat ion and evolution, but also gradually revealing it's omen features We believ e this predicting technique on line based on combining satellite remote sensing with ground information to be of far reaching importance.