什邡50年气温变化特征及回归分析

利用什邡市1959—2008年逐日气温资料，采用一元线性回归及5年滑动平均，Mann．Kendall法（M-K）等方法，研究分析了什邡市50年来气温年际变化特征。结果显示：（1）气温以0．13℃／10a的趋势变暖，50年平均上升了0．6℃到0．7℃，其中四季存在显著差异，秋季变暖趋势最明显达0．21℃／10a，春季次之为0．13℃／10a，冬季为0．11℃／10a，夏季最不明显。（2）年平均气温在21世纪初期均有明显变暖突变。

The Characteristics of Temperature Variation and Regression Analysis in Shifang in the Past Fifty Years

Using temperature data of Shifang from 1959 to 2008 and using a linear regression and 5-year moving aver- age, Mann-Kendall method （M-K） etc, analyses are made on the past 50 years inter-annual variations in temperature characteristics. The results indicate： （1） The temperature increases by 0. 13℃ every decade, and 50 years rose by an average of 0.6℃ to 0.7℃, of which there were significant differences between the four seasons. The most obvious trend reaches to 0.21℃ every decade in the autumn; Spring follows by rising 0. 13℃ every decade, and 0.11℃ rising every decade in winter. Summer is insignificant. （2） The annual average temperature in the early 21st century has an obvious wanning mutation.