| 人工神经网络在云南5月雨量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周丽华,尤卫红.人工神经网络在云南5月雨量预测中的应用[J].成都信息工程学院学报,1999(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周丽华 尤卫红 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学计算机科学系(周丽华)，云南省气象台(尤卫红) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一个基于３层ＰＢ神经网络的云南５月雨量的短期气候预测模型。由于神经网络本身是一个非线性动态系统，将其应用到短期气候变化预测这一非线性系统中，更能反映出气候系统状态量之间的物理关系和动力行为特性。并用该预测模型对云南５个区域１９９１～１９９８年的５月雨量距平趋势进行了共４０次的预测试验和检验，其预测的距平符号相关准确率可达到７７．５％。
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络，雨量预测，距平趋势 |
AN APPLICATION OF THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO MAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN YUNNAN |
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| Zhou,Lihua.AN APPLICATION OF THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO MAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN YUNNAN[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,1999(1). |
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| Authors: | Zhou Lihua |
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| Abstract: | By using a feedforward neural networks of 3 layers , a forecast model of May precipitation for Yunnan Province is introduced. Because the neural networks itself is a non linear dynamic system , it reflects the physical relations and dynamic properties among state variables of the climatic system. The verifications of May precipitation forecasts for Yunnan Province in 1991-1998 show that the forecast accuracies of anomaly sign of this model can reach 77.5%. |
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| Keywords: | Neural networks Precipitation forecast Anomaly tendency |
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