地震诱发堰塞湖下游淹没风险评估方法对比研究

为了提升地震诱发堰塞湖突发灾难应急处置能力和充分利用灾区基础数据开展高效决策,本文结合遥感影像、DEM、水文资料和GIS技术,开展利用水文流量演算法和二维水动力学模型法快速评估堰塞湖溃决后下游淹没风险的方法研究。通过对唐家山堰塞湖690m溃坝洪水算例的应用,分别计算基于上述两种方法的下游潜在淹没影响范围,得到的两种计算结果均显示该规模的洪水将淹没下游北川县城的结果。最后通过分析对比两种影响范围计算结果的精度、数据需求、计算时长,评估两种方法在地震诱发堰塞湖下游淹没风险快速评估研究中的时效性、准确性和互补性。

A Comparative Study of the Rapid Estimation of Downstream Flood Risk Induced by Dammed Lakes

Emergency disposal of water in earthquake-induced dammed lakes must adequately utilize fundamental data for efficient decision making. This paper presents a comparative study of the rapid estimation of downstream flood risks induced by dammed lakes using the Muskingum and Hydrodynamics methods combined with remote sensing，DEM，hydrologic data，and UIS techniques. Both methods were used to calculate the downstream potential impact area from the Tangjiashan dammed lake when the dam-break water level reached 690m. The results from both methods showed that the downstream Beichuan Town would be submerged.The rapidity，accuracy，and complementarities of both methods were evaluated based on the the potential impact area results，data requirements，and calculation times.