Improving impervious surface estimation: an integrated method of classification and regression trees (CART) and linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA) based on error analysis

Classification and regression tree (CART) has been widely implemented to estimate impervious surface, an important indicator of urbanization and environmental quality. Although the CART algorithm gains higher overall accuracy than linear regression models, only very few studies have noticed that reliability of CART is affected by systematic errors. Especially, CART typically overestimates impervious surfaces in low-density urban areas and underestimates them in high-density urban areas. The primary objective of this study is to develop an improved integrated method to estimate impervious surface with higher accuracy by reducing the systematic errors of CART. This improved method was applied to three urban areas, Chicago (United States), Venice (Italy), and Guangzhou (China) to examine its effectiveness. When compared with the conventional CART, overall mean average error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of improved method are decreased by 22.64% and 20.93%, respectively, and R² rises from 0.9 to 0.96. In high-density impervious surfaces, where intensely developed urban area is located, the MAE and RMSE for the improved method are 0.066 and 0.088, respectively, largely improved from 0.100 to 0.130. Since accurate estimation of high-density impervious surfaces is the fundamental issue for monitoring and understanding the urban environment, the improved method demonstrated in this study is significant.