哈尔滨市景观生态风险时空变化驱动力及分布预测

本文以哈尔滨市为研究对象，首先构建了景观生态风险及预测模型；然后对1998—2018年景观生态风险时空变化驱动力进行分析；最后对研究区域2023年景观生态风险空间分布进行预测。结果表明：①研究区域近20年景观生态风险先降低后升高，空间格局变化较为显著。②道路距离、第二产业、农业、高程为景观生态风险变化主要驱动力。1998—2008年，主城区周围道路距离系数逐年减小，南部地区逐年增高，其他时间内未见明显变化；农业和高程对区域景观生态风险的总体影响显著，存在空间差异；第二产业对区域景观生态风险影响程度呈现先增后降的变化。③预测所得的2023年景观生态风险空间差别不明显，降低区域比升高区域面积大。

Spatial-temporal change driving forces and distribution prediction of landscape ecological risk in Harbin

This paper takes Harbin as the research object,constructs a landscape ecological risk and prediction model, analyzes the driving force of temporal and spatial change of landscape ecological risk from 1998 to 2018, and predicts the spatial distribution of regional landscape ecological risk in 2023. The results show that：①The regional landscape ecological risk decreased firstly and then increased in recent 20 years, and the spatial pattern changed significantly. ②Road distance, secondary industry, agriculture and elevation are the main driving forces for the change of landscape ecological risk. From 1998 to 2008, the distance coefficient of roads decreased around the main urban area and increased in the south. No significant change was observed at other times.The overall impact of agriculture and elevation on regional landscape ecological risk was significant, and there were spatial differences. The degree of impact of secondary sector of the economy on regional landscape ecological risk increased first and then decreased. ③The predicted spatial difference of landscape ecological risk in 2023 is not obvious, and the reduced area is larger than the increased area.