红柳江区域陆地水储量变化及其驱动因素分析EI北大核心CSCD

本文利用CSR-RL06和Tongji-Grace2018时变重力场模型反演了2003年1月—2016年12月红柳江区域陆地水储量变化,并联合降水、蒸散、径流和人类活动耗水等多源数据建立了区域水量平衡方程,定量评估了该区域陆地水储量变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:①考虑人类活动耗水为区域陆地水储量输出项时,由水量平衡方程闭合差计算的均方根误差降低了39%。②气象水文因素贡献率仅于2009、2011和2016年为负,其均值为-22.5%,其余年份正贡献率均值为47.7%;人类活动耗水贡献率始终为负,其均值为-34.8%。③龙滩水库蓄水变化与该区域陆地水储量变化相关系数为0.66,均存在一年和两年主周期信号。

Analysis of terrestrial water storage change and its driving factors of Hongliu River region

The terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) from January 2003 to December 2016 over the Hongliu River region (HLRR) is derived from the CSR-RL06 and Tongji-Grace2018 time-variable gravity field models. In addition, the major influencing factors of the regional TWSC are quantified via the water balance equations using precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and human-induced water consumption. The results show that: ① When the water consumption is considered, the root-mean-square error of the water balance is reduced by 39%. ② The annual positive average contribution rate of meteorological and hydrological factors to the HLRR TWSC is 47.7% except for 2009, 2011 and 2016 with the mean negative contribution rate of -22.5%, while the annual negative average contribution rate of the human-related water consumption is -34.8%. ③ The correlation coefficient between water storage changes in the Longtan Reservoir and the TWSC over the Hongliu River region is 0.66, and there are one-year and two-year main cycle signals.