中国地级市收缩识别及其驱动力分析

以全国地级市行政单元内的常住人口增长率作为城市收缩量化标准,从国家、胡焕庸线、四大经济区3个不同尺度分别识别2000-2010年,中国地级市收缩情况,并进行二元logistic回归分析探讨其收缩原因。结果表明:2000-2010年,中国共有86个地级市发生收缩;胡焕庸线以东地区的收缩地级市数量远高于胡焕庸线以西地区的,中部的湖北省和西部的四川省地级市收缩现象最为突出;显著影响中国地级市收缩的因素有以下5点:人口老龄化、城市初期经济发展水平与速度、居民人均收入、产业结构变化及城市内部环境和社会服务设施的优劣,地级市收缩原因表现出明显的地域差异性。

Identification of Shrinking Cities at Prefecture-Level in China and Its Driving Forces

Taking the growth rate of resident population in prefecture-level cities as its shrinkage quantitative standard,this paper identifies the shrinkage of Chinese cities and municipal districts in 2000-2010from the four Economic Zoning scales of the country,the East-West of Hu Huanyong Line and the four economic zones,and makes a binary logistic regression analysis to explore the shrinkage reasons.The results show that:There are 86shrinking cities in China during 2000-2010.Central Hubei province and Western Sichuan province are most prominent in city shrinkage.The number of shrinking cities in the east of the Hu Huanyong line is much higher than that in the west of the Hu Huanyong line.Most of the shrinking cities in China belong to the city-wide shrinkage while the population of municipal districts increases,which means that most shrinking cities shrink because of the population reduction in non-municipal districts.Significant factors affecting city shrinkage in China are as follows:population aging,the level and speed of economic development in the initial stage of the city,per capita income of residents,changes in industrial structure,advantages and disadvantages of urban internal environment and social service facilities,and the causes of city shrinkage has obvious regional differences.