Numerical prediction methods for clock deviation based on two-way satellite time and frequency transfer data |
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Authors: | Hairong Guo Yuanxi Yang Haibo He |
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Institution: | (1) Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Information Engineering University, 66 Middle Longhai Road, Zhengzhou, 450052, China;(2) P.O.Box 5136, 22 Beiqing Road, Beijing, 100094, China |
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Abstract: | Three functional models, polynomial, spectral analysis, and modified AR model, are studied and compared in fitting and predicting
clock deviation based on the data sequence derived from two-way satellite time and frequency transfer. A robust equivalent
weight is applied, which controls the significant influence of outlying observations. Some conclusions show that the prediction
precision of robust estimation is better than that of LS. The prediction precision calculated from smoothed observations is
higher than that calculated from sampling observations. As a count of the obvious period variations in the clock deviation
sequence, the predicted values of polynomial model are implausible. The prediction precision of spectral analysis model is
very low, but the principal periods can be determined. The prediction RMS of 6-hour extrapolation interval is 1 ns or so,
when modified AR model is used.
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (No. 40474001, No. 40274002, No. 40604003). |
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Keywords: | time prediction time transfer two-way satellite time and frequency transfer |
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