| 基于时间序列分析和灰色理论的建筑物沉降预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐卫东,伍锡锈,欧海平.基于时间序列分析和灰色理论的建筑物沉降预测模型研究[J].测绘信息与工程,2012,37(6):23-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐卫东 伍锡锈 欧海平 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广州市建设大马路10号,510060 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于时间序列分析方法建立建筑物沉降预测模型,其中通过二次移动平均法提取出沉降监测序列中的趋势项,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论动态GM（1,1）模型进行趋势项预测。实际算例结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测沉降变化的发展趋势,并具有较高的预测精度,证明了该预测模型具有一定的可行性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 沉降预测 二次移动平均法 GM（1 1）灰色模型 |
Research on Building Subsidence Prediction Model Based on Time Series Analysis and Grey Theory |
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| XU Weidong,WU Xixiu,OU Haiping.Research on Building Subsidence Prediction Model Based on Time Series Analysis and Grey Theory[J].Journal of Geomatics,2012,37(6):23-25. |
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| Authors: | XU Weidong WU Xixiu OU Haiping |
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| Institution: | (Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute,10 Jiansheda Road,Guangzhou 510060,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on time series analysis,a building subsidence prediction model is established,in which a double moving average method is used to extract the trend of subsidence monitoring sequence.On this basis,a dynamic GM（1,1） model of a grey system theory is build as a prediction model.An actual example result shows that this model can predict the a developing trend in building subsidence and is highly precision,so the feasibility of this model is supported. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis subsidence prediction double moving average method GM(1 1)grey model |
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