| 利用LS_AR模型对极移参数的中长期预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏二虎,杨亚利,金双根,刘经南.利用LS_AR模型对极移参数的中长期预报[J].测绘信息与工程,2014(4):5-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏二虎 杨亚利 金双根 刘经南 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学测绘学院;武汉大学地球空间环境与大地测量教育部重点实验室;中国科学院上海天文台;武汉大学GNSS研究中心; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41374012);武汉大学测绘学院2012年本科专业综合改革教学研究资助项目(201220) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了满足深空探测器自主导航定位对极移参数中长期预报的需求,阐述了基于LS_AR模型的极移参数中长期预报和精度评定的原理,提出了4种改进方案对LS_AR模型的构建进行优化,并利用IERS提供的1990～1996年的极移参数的时间序列检验4种优化方案,得到了最优的预报模型,在400 d跨度上,其预报结果的平均绝对误差比未优化的模型小3 mas左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 极移 中长期预报 LS_AR模型 优化 |
Improvement of LS_AR Model and Long-term Forecast of Polar Motion |
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| Institution: | WEI Erhu, YANG Yali, JIN Shuanggen,LIU Jingnan, ( 1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan Unbersity ;2 Key Laboratory of Geospace Envimmen and Ge(desy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China; 3 Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030, China ; 4 Research Center of GNSS, uhan University 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to satisfy the middle and long term forecast demand of polar motion parameters for navigation and positioning of the deep space probe,in this paper,the theory of polar motion parameter for middle and long term prediction and accuracy evaluation with LS_AR model are presented. Four methods to improve LS_AR model are put forward. And the best method is selected by checking them with polar motion parameter time series from 1990 to 1996 provided by IERS. The prediction result indicates that MAE of the most optimal prediction model＇s solutions is about 3 mas less than that of the unoptimized model for 400-day span. |
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| Keywords: | polar motion middle and long term prediction LS_AR model optimize |
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