中国省际煤炭资源流动的时空演变及驱动力

根据1957-2005 年中国各省区煤炭调出和调入数据, 运用SPSS 和GIS 方法, 首先对 “一五”~ “十五”各省区的煤炭流动地域类型进行了判别, 然后在省域尺度研究了煤炭资源 区域流动的时空过程, 最后探讨了煤炭资源流动时空演变的驱动力。“一五”~ “十五”中国 省际间煤炭流动演变特征有: 中国省际间煤炭资源流动规模逐年增大, 省际间煤炭调出总量 年均增长5.9%, 煤炭调入总量年均增长5.6%。流动范围逐年扩展, 无流地由1957 年的10 个省区缩小至近年的1 个左右。流场呈集中输流、分散汇流的特征, 调出省区个数< 调入省 区个数, 调出首位度> 调入首位度。煤炭区域流动演变的主要驱动力有: ① 产消不平衡是煤 炭资源区域流动的基本动力。晋陕蒙、西部煤炭产消盈余, 华东、中南、东北煤炭产消亏缺, 决定了北煤南运、西煤东运的煤炭流动格局。② 运煤通道的改善促进了煤炭区域流动。2005 年交通密度指数在20 以上的省区, 煤炭外运条件较好, 交通密度指数20 以下的省区都不同 程度的存在煤炭外运困难。而且, 统筹交通设施布局与煤炭生产布局可极大地推动区域煤炭 流动。③ 煤炭区域价格差异是煤炭流动的信号, 对资源流动的方向和数量产生一定的影响。

Spatial- temporal Process and Driving Force of Interprovincial Coal Flowing in China

Based on data of export to other provinces and import from other provinces, with statistical analysis by SPSS and spatial analysis by GIS, change of regional type of coal flow from the 1st Five-Year Plan(FYP) to the 10th FYP of all 31 provinces in China are discussed firstly, spatial-temporal process of coal flow among regions in province scale are studied secondly, and driving force of the change of temporal-spatial process of coal flowing are explored lastly. The dynamic characteristics of coal interprovincial flow from the 1st FYP to the 10th FYP are:quantity of interprovincial coal flow increase gradually with the average annual increase rate of export and import reaching 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. The range of interprovincial coal flow extends gradually, for example, the number of province that has no interprovincial coal flow reduced from 10 in 1957 to 2 in 2005. Spatial structure of interprovincial coal flow can be depicted as that output stream concentrated on few provinces, while a great number of provinces need to input coal from other provinces to satisfy industrial and domestic demand. The number of export provinces is less than that of import provinces, while the ratio of export coal of the primacy exporter in total coal export is more than that of import coal of the primary importer in total coal import. The main driving forces of temporal-spatial change of interprovincial coal flow lie in:(1) the deficit between coal production and consumption is the primary driving force of coal regional flow. The coal production is more than coal consumption in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and some provinces in Northwest and Southwest China, while the coal consumption is more than coal production of most provinces in eastern China, southern China and Northeast China. So coal flow from the north to the south, and flow from the west to the east is the spatial pattern of coal regional flow in China.(2) To perfect transportation can facilitate coal regional flow. Provinces with road density index being above 20 can transport coal out smoothly, while it is difficult to do so for provinces with road density index under 20 in 2005. Besides, making infrastructure layout assort with coal production distribution can boost coal regional flow.(3) Regional price differentia is a signal of coal regional flow, which can influence the direction and quantity of coal regional flow.