太湖流域土地利用变化对流域产水量的影响

根据土地详查和土地利用总体规划资料，分析太湖流域近２０年土地利用的现状特点和将来变化趋势。并以 １９９１年降雨类型分别计算了 １９８６、１９９６和 ２０１０年土地利用状况下流域的产水量。结果表明，太湖流域土地利用变化的主要特点是耕地面积的减少和建设用地面积的增加。同样降雨类型，１９９６年流域下垫面状况下的产水量比 １９８６年的多１０．１８ × １０８ ｍ３，２０１０年产水量将比 １９８６年多 １２ × １０８ｍ３。太湖流域土地利用变化对流域产水量有较大影响，这与２０世纪９０年代以来太湖持续高水位的现象相吻合。

Impact of Land Use Change on Runoff of Taihu Basin

Taihu Basin is one of the most developed regions in China and its land use has withnessed great changes in recent 20 years. Based on land use survey (1986, 1996) and land use planning (2010) data, land use characteristics are analyzed in this paper. Runoff of 1986, 1996 and 2010 was calculated using precipitation pattern from May to September of 1991. It is found out: The land use changed greatly in the Taihu Basin during 1986-1996. Cultivated land decreased by 3 385 km² and construction area increased by 2 460 km². Land use will go on changing to 2010, but the change will be little. Spatial distribution of land use is different in the Taihu Basin. With higher per capita GDP and dense population, land use changes greater than other regions. Land use changes have increased runoff of precipitation greatly. Compared to 1986, runoff increased by 10×108 m³ in 1996 if 1991 precipitation was used. It will increase by 12×108 m³ in 2010 compared to 1986. The upper reaches have more runoff increase than the lower reaches. These calculated results are corresponding with high water levels of the Taihu Lake in the 1990s.