中国农产品贸易结构演化及对粮食安全的影响

利用可比净出口指数、贸易集中度指数、Hilbert曲线、时空多元模式可视化、岭回归等方法,对1992—2020年中国农产品贸易结构演化进行分析,并解释其与粮食安全的关系。结论认为：① 1992—2020年中国农产品贸易总体格局发生了转变,表现为对国际进口的依赖显著增强,猪肉、牛肉、玉米、高粱、油菜籽等众多农产品由出口转变为进口状态。快速增长的进口直接增加了国内食物的供应,提升了粮食安全水平。② 农产品进口呈现产品结构和空间结构双集中的叠加效应,这种效应使得重点农产品进口极易受美国、澳大利亚等少数国家贸易政策变化的不利影响;在出口方面,农产品集中度较小,随着与“一带一路”等地区国家贸易的发展,地理集中度也显著降低。较低的集中度有利于稳定出口的经济效益,保障出口部门农业生产的稳定性。③ 中国农业生产出现部分进口产品生产规模压缩的趋势,加上高度集中的进口结构,将使得国内农业生产与粮食安全保障在面对外部冲击时更加脆弱。建议在坚持贸易开放的同时,优化农产品的生产和贸易结构,引导形成合理的农业种植格局。

Evolving agricultural trade structure and its impact on food security in China

International trade of agricultural products plays a crucial role in national food security in China. Using the methods of normalized trade balance index, Hirschman index, Hilbert curve, ridge regression, and visualization analysis, this paper analyzes the evolution of China's agricultural trade structure from 1992 to 2020 and its relationship with food security. This paper finds that: (1) The pattern of China's agricultural trade changed significantly from 1992 to 2020, characterized by an increasing dependency on imports. The trade of agricultural products, such as pork, beef, corn, sorghum, and rapeseed, shifted from exports to imports. The rapid growth of imports which directly increased domestic food supply has improved food security in China. (2) The imports of agricultural products present a combined effect of product structure and spatial structure. As a result, the imports of key agricultural products are likely to be affected by the trade policy changes in some countries such as the United States and Australia. In contrast, the exports of agricultural products show a low concentration. The trade with countries and regions along the Belt and Road has dramatically expanded the exporting destinations, and significantly lowered the geographical concentration of exports. A low level of concentration has helped to ensure the economic benefits of exports and stabilize agricultural production in the export sector. (3) Agricultural production in China has showed an inclination to reduce the production of some imported products. Coupled with the highly concentrated import structure, domestic agricultural production and food security will be vulnerable to external shocks. Based on the findings, it is suggested to optimize the import and export structures of agricultural products, and guide proper agricultural production while adhering to trade openness.