中国粮耕价值比与种植结构时空耦合演化及分区调控

耕地粮食产出价值与种植结构均深刻影响着国家粮食安全，探讨耕地粮食产出价值与种植结构的时空耦合变化，可理清两者关系，助力粮食安全保障能力的提升。本文以中国省级行政单元为研究对象，在深刻解读粮耕价值比和种植结构内涵的基础上，综合利用Simpson指数、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关等方法，分析2004—2020年中国粮耕价值比和种植结构耦合时空演化，以揭示其时空动态关系。结果表明：① 2004—2020年各省份粮耕价值比空间分布特征表现为“由北向南”和“由西向东”的双重递减态势；② 种植结构空间格局呈现由“胡焕庸线”沿线区域向两侧递减的空间分布形态，东北、华北和华东地区多样性递减明显；③ 粮耕价值比与种植结构耦合协调度介于勉强耦合协调与高度耦合协调之间，表现为规律性空间集聚，中西部及东北地区呈高高集聚，具有“匹配性优势”，东南沿海地区呈低低集聚，有待“匹配性改良”，总体表现为：“东北、中部高，东南部低”的态势。本文认为应依据要素空间集聚和扩散的分异特征，因区施策引导耕地粮食品质化与多元化协同演进，促进粮食结构与效益匹配发展。

Spatio-temporal coupling evolution and zoning regulation of grain-to-arable value ratio and cropping structures in China

Both the food production value on arable land and the structure of food crop cultivation have impacted on national food security. Therefore, exploring changes in their spatial and temporal coupling patterns can help us to understand their relationships and to further improve food security. In this research, we took provincial-level regions in China as the object, and based on an in-depth interpretation of the connotation of the grain-to-arable value ratio and cropping structure, Simpson's index model, coupling coordination model and spatial auto-correlation are comprehensively used to study the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of grain-to-arable value ratio and cropping structure in the study area from 2004 to 2020, and the spatial and temporal dynamics between them in different regions are revealed in consequence. The results show that: (1) The spatial distribution of the grain-to-arable value ratio in all the provincial-level regions from 2004 to 2020 shows a double-decreasing characteristic, one from north to south and the other from west to east; (2) The spatial pattern of cropping structure shows a Hu-Huanyong-line-ridge in terms of spatial distribution, where Northeast, North and East China witness a significant decrease in crop diversity; (3) The degree of coupling coordination between the grain-to-arable value ratio and cropping structure is found between barely coupled and coordinated and highly coupled and coordinated, showing regular spatial clustering characteristics. In the central, western and northeastern China, there is a high-high concentration with matching advantage; in the southeast coastal region, there is a low-low concentration for matching improvement; and the overall distribution presents a pattern of high in the northeast and central regions, and low in the southeast. The study believes that, based on the heterogeneous characteristics of the spatial concentration and diffusion of factors, the synergistic evolution of food quality and diversity on arable land should be encouraged according to the local conditions, so as to promote the harmonious development of food structure and efficiency.