1990—2015年亚洲内部人口迁移格局及影响因素

把握亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移规律,有助于新时期中国制定合理的国际移民政策,推动“一带一路”倡议迈向高质量发展。本文基于1990—2015年国际双边移民流量数据,运用社会网络分析和空间滤波面板负二项引力模型,阐明亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移的时空格局与驱动因素。研究发现：① 1990—2000年亚洲主要迁移流集中在西亚、南亚和东南亚各区域内部,且大多发生在邻国之间,2000—2015年出现多条横跨上述三大区域的大规模迁移流;② 人口迁移网络强度相对较低,联系紧密程度先升后降;③ 政治不稳定与战乱冲突是人口迁移的重要推动力,经济发展水平差异和国民收入差异是重要驱动力,多维邻近因素（经济邻近和文化邻近）也起到一定的推动作用;④ 25年间,经济差异的影响先增后减;政治不稳定一直是人口迁移的主要影响因素,且对人口迁出的影响更大;进出口贸易发展在部分时期积极促进人口流动,留学吸引力影响呈波动趋势;⑤ 非经济和结构性力量在亚洲内部跨国/地区人口迁移过程中起到决定性作用。

Spatial pattern and determinants of international migration flows in Asia, 1990-2015

Understanding the characteristics of transnational migration in Asia is beneficial for China to formulate a reasonable international migration policy in the new era and promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the data of bilateral international migration flows from 1990 to 2015, this study tries to clarify the temporal and spatial patterns and influencing factors of Asian transnational migration by using social network analysis and spatial filtering panel negative binomial gravity model (ESF). The results are listed as follows: First, the main migration flows in Asia from 1990 to 2000 were concentrated in West Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia, and most of them occurred between the adjacent countries and regions. From 2000 to 2015, there was a number of large-scale migration flows across the above three subregions. Second, the scale of the migration network in Asia is relatively low, and the degree of closeness between the Asian countries has increased first and then weakened over time. Third, political instability and war conflicts of the origin were important driving forces for transnational migration in Asia. Besides, the differences of economic development and national income between countries were the crucial driving forces, while multi-dimensional proximity factors played an important role in promoting transnational migration. Fourth, from 1990 to 2015, the effect of economic differences on transnational migration increased first and then weakened. In addition, political instability has always been the main influencing factors for migration. Besides, the development of import trade has positively promoted transnational migration, and the attractiveness of studying abroad has a fluctuating effect on transnational migration. Finally, non-economic and structural impacts were the most important factors influencing the transnational migration in Asia.