土地系统多主体模型的理论与应用

土地变化科学是理解人类—自然耦合系统的交叉学科研究方向。多主体模型（ABM）作为过程导向模型,对揭示土地变化驱动力,理解土地变化过程有重要作用。本文从理论、应用与建模框架三方面出发,总结了ABM理论基础和相关概念;阐述了ABM在城市和农业土地系统两方面的应用与发展,进一步介绍了横断山区退耕还林ABM研究案例;在梳理ABM建模协议的基础上,提出了主体视角的土地系统ABM建模框架和实施流程。在城市土地利用方面,ABM研究从最初基于景观研究城市扩张,到研究城市内部居住分隔,规划分区,生态功能等多方面;在农业土地利用方面,ABM应用则呈现出更加多样化和个性化的特征,包括农民行为、农户决策、种植系统、农业政策等。相比于传统模型,ABM因其依靠本地知识与数据而使得其构建更为复杂,且不易推广;但因其独特的自下而上模型构架,在探究土地变化驱动力、刻画人类行为对自然环境影响等方面具有不可或缺的作用。

Agent based model of land system: Theory,application and modelling framework

Land change science has become an interdisciplinary research direction for understanding human-natural coupling systems. As a process-oriented modelling approach, Agent based model (ABM) plays an important role in revealing the driving forces of land change and understanding the process of land change. This paper starts from three aspects: the theory, application and modeling framework of ABM. First, we summarize the theoretical basis of ABM and introduce some related concepts. Then we expound the application and development of ABM in both urban land systems and agricultural land systems, and further introduce the case study of an model on Grain to Green Program in the Hengduan Mountains region, Southwest China. On the basis of combing the ABM modeling protocol, we propose the land system ABM modeling framework and process from the perspective of agents. In terms of urban land use, ABM research initially focused on the study of urban expansion based on landscape, then expanded to issues like urban residential separation, planning and zoning, ecological functions, etc. In terms of agricultural land use, ABM application presents more diverse and individualized features. Research topics include farmers' behavior, farmers' decision-making, planting systems, agricultural policy. Compared to traditional models, ABM is more complex and difficult to generalize beyond specific context since it relies on local knowledge and data. However, due to its unique bottom-up model structure, ABM has an indispensable role in exploring the driving forces of land change as well as the impact of human behavior on the environment.