城镇化与生态环境耦合动态模拟理论及方法的研究进展

城镇化与生态环境耦合是当前研究热点,而其动态模拟将是未来的重要方向。基于系统科学与跨尺度耦合理论揭示城镇化与生态环境耦合系统的本质,即一个非线性的、具有高低阶多重反馈的开放的复杂巨系统。通过综述城镇化与生态环境耦合动态模拟的理论、方法与应用的研究进展,可知：① 动态模拟成为趋势,相关理论与机理解析不断完善;② 动态模拟技术趋向多元化、精细化、智能化和集成化;③ 应用研究基于多类型案例区、多要素以及近远程与跨区域3个方面。当前研究不足包括：① 理论发展与整合不足;② 方法集成与数据共享力度滞后;③ 耦合关系链条和主控要素的动态特征未被完整揭示,远程耦合模拟缺乏定量表达、系统性整合以及与区域联动层面的应用衔接。今后,应以理论为根基,推动多科学交叉融合;以方法为支撑,推动动态模拟技术整合与数据共享;以应用为导向,揭示城市群等重点地区的近远程关系链条与主控要素的动态演化模式,为区域可持续城镇化提供决策支持。

Dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling: A review on theory,methods and applications

At present, urbanization and eco-environment coupling has become a research hotspot. Owing to the complexity of the coupling mechanism, as well as the limitation of mathematical statistics methods, the process simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling needs to be strengthened. Based on the systems science and cross-scale coupling theory, we can define the coupled urbanization and eco-environment system as a nonlinear open system with multiple feedbacks. Based on the above analysis, the progress of dynamic simulation for urbanization and eco-environment coupling is reviewed. (1) As dynamic simulation has become a trend, the relevant analysis of theory and mechanism is being improved. (2) Dynamic simulation technologies have shown a trend of diversified, refined, intelligent and integrated pattern. (3) The simulation application mainly focuses on three aspects, including multiple-case regions, multiple elements, local coupling and telecoupling, and regional synergy. In addition, we found some shortcomings. (1) The development and integration of basic theories are insufficient. (2) The method integration and data sharing is lagging. (3) The coupling relational chains and dynamic characteristics of the main control elements are not fully revealed. Besides, telecoupling simulation is not quantified and systematically integrated, and could not be effectively applied to spatial synergy. In future, we should promote the intersection of research networks, technology integration and data sharing, and then uncover the evolution process of coupling relational chains and the main control elements in urban agglomerations. Finally, we should build decision-making support systems for regional sustainable urbanization.