中国国有建设用地供应规模时空特征及影响因素

本文利用Python程序抓取了中国土地市场网上的2010-2015年土地供应结果公告,采用空间分布重心、区位基尼系数、热点分析等方法探究了中国县域国有建设用地供应规模时空特征,并用面板数据模型解析了不同发展阶段的区域供地规模影响因素。研究发现：① 该期间供地规模总体经历了先增后减,县域供地规模空间集聚度、热点区和次热点区总体在扩散;② 受“西部大开发战略”“援疆”和“中部崛起战略”的实施,县域供地规模空间分布重心向西移动明显;③ 土地供应集中在城市群范围内,县域所在的城市行政等级与供地规模密切关联;④ 不同发展阶段的区域供地总规模变化和平均供地结构存在差异,高等级发展阶段的区域平均供地规模较大;⑤ 公共财政支出、固定资产投资、第二产业增长率、第三产业增长率、人口规模增长率和人均GDP对不同发展阶段的区域供地规模影响差异明显,投资建设对各个发展阶段的区域供地规模均有较强推动作用。

Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of state owned construction land supply in China

According to the land supply results obtained from http://www.landchina.com/, this paper explored the spatio-temporal characteristics of state owned construction land supply of counties in China from 2010 to 2015 by using the spatial distribution of gravity-center, locational Gini index and hot spot analysis, and then analyzed the influencing factors of land supply of regions in different development phases based on panel data models. We found that land supply has experienced a process of increasing first and then decreasing, and spatial agglomeration degree, hot spot and sub-hotspot zones of land supply in counties were in general diffusion during the study period. Due to the implementation of "Western Development Strategy", "Aiding Xinjiang" and "Rise of Central China Plan", spatial distribution of gravity-center of land supply in counties moved evidently westward. The land supply was concentrated within the urban agglomerations. The administrative hierarchy of prefecture-level cities with counties was closely related to the land supply scale. In other words, the higher the administrative level of prefecture-level cities is, the larger the average land supply of counties is. There were differences in the total supply land size change and average land supply structure from region to region in different development stages. In general, the regions with high development stages need more construction land. Public finance expenditure, fixed asset investment, secondary industry growth rate, tertiary industry growth rate, growth rate of population size and per capita GDP have different effects on the land supply of regions in different stages. Among them, investment including public finance expenditure and fixed asset investment plays a critical role in promoting the land supply of regions in different development stages.