中国产业发展与布局的关联法则

产业地理学研究产业空间分布及其动态演化规律。基于地理邻近性的集聚理论揭示了产业地理不平衡分布的内在机制。演化经济地理学借鉴演化经济学的历史视角,从历史角度考察经济活动空间分布的渐进演化机制,认为地理邻近性不是产业地理格局演化的充分必要条件,以认知邻近性为核心的多维邻近性能够提供更好的解释。本文从认知邻近视角系统地分析了中国区域产业发展与布局动态演化规律,总结出中国产业发展与布局的“关联法则”,即一个企业或区域进入（或退出）某项经济活动的概率是该企业或地区拥有的基于相关知识基础的经济活动的函数。本文全面地回顾了关联法则涉及的关键概念,梳理企业和区域尺度的实证研究成果,讨论关联法则在中国的适用性及其补充和拓展。本文指出：① 在认知邻近视角下,基于资源转换和组织学习等理论基础,关联法则研究了企业或区域发展新产业与现有产业之间的关系。② 关联法则不仅适用于中国企业和区域尺度,还会影响区域经济发展、创新和韧性等。③ 外部联系、冲击以及内部制度环境等可能会降低区域产业动态对本地产业基础的依赖性。关联法则指出中国区域需培育内生发展模式,围绕现有区域能力、技术和知识积累发展区域产业和实现区际产业优化布局与分工,逐步建立相关多样化的产业体系,增强区域韧性,支撑国内经济循环。

The principle of relatedness in China's regional industrial development

Geographical distribution and agglomeration of industries have been a long lasting concern of economic geographers. Some studies have stressed geographical proximity and industrial agglomeration as the key driving force of uneven distribution of industries. Recently, evolutionary economic geography, based on evolutionary economics, has adopted a dynamic and historic perspective to study the evolution of regional industrial dynamics. It argues that geographical proximity is neither sufficient nor necessary for efficient knowledge spillovers; instead, it calls for more attention to the idea of cognitive proximity as well as its importance in regional industrial dynamics. The idea is that for knowledge spillovers to take place effectively, some kind of cognitive proximity in terms of shared competencies must be in place. Inspired by this, we examine China's regional industrial development through the lens of cognitive proximity, and propose the "principle of relatedness", that is, the probability of a region to enter/exit one specific economic activity is heavily dependent on regional pre-existing economic profile and local knowledge base. This paper first introduces some key, relevant concepts, and then reviews empirical studies that are underpinned by the "principle of relatedness". Furthermore, it discusses the applicability of "principle of relatedness" in the Chinese context. Our main findings are as follows: (1) theories on resource base view and knowledge spillovers both support the existence of the "principle of relatedness"; (2) the "principle of relatedness" enables us to better understand China's regional economic development, innovation and resilience; however, (3) the effectiveness of the "principle of relatedness" may be compromised by external shocks and internal institutions. One policy implication from the "principle of relatedness" as well as our empirical research is that Chinese regions should seek to diversify related industries and enhance related variety of their regional profiles. In doing so, they are able to become more economically resilient and achieve more sustainable economic development.