2000—2014年全球粮食安全格局的时空演化及影响因素

粮食安全是实现可持续发展整体目标的基础,由于“至2015年使饥饿人口比例减半”的千年发展目标并未如期实现,使得2030年零饥饿目标的实现面临更大挑战。鉴于此,亟需从全球粮食安全格局的时空演化中寻找全球粮食安全问题的内在原因。在建立粮食安全评价因子数据集和粮食安全影响因素数据集的基础上,运用多指标综合评价法评价2000—2014年172个国家的粮食安全水平;进而通过空间自相关分析研究全球粮食安全格局的空间模式与变化特征;在此基础上运用多元非线性回归方法分析粮食安全格局的影响因素。结果表明：① 全球粮食安全格局呈现出社会经济发展与粮食安全水平“高—高集聚、低—低集聚”的空间模式,其中高值区主要分布在除东欧以外的欧洲区域、北美洲、大洋洲和东亚部分国家,低值区主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚和西亚地区、以及东南亚部分国家;② 在99%的置信水平上,欧洲和撒哈拉以南非洲分别是全球粮食安全格局的热点和冷点,在非集聚区,海地和朝鲜等国存在长期粮食不安全问题;③ 全球粮食安全格局总体稳定,但极不安全和不安全组的内部变化明显,粮食安全水平波动最大的国家也是粮食最不安全的国家;④ 年平均气温、人均国内生产总值、获得洁净用水的人口占比、政治稳定与无暴力程度是全球粮食安全格局的主要影响因素。研究表明,自2000年以来,全球粮食安全状况有所改善,但2013年出现趋势性逆转。受气候变化、居民购买力、健康卫生水平和政治经济稳定性影响,全球粮食安全始终波动不稳,局部区域目前仍面临突出的粮食安全问题。为此,建议制定基于粮食供给、食物获取、食物利用和政治稳定性四大支柱的粮食安全战略,并通过全球乡村振兴策略来推动粮食安全建设,同时逐步引入城市农业等多元化生产方式,使高度城市化区域建立起更富弹性的食物系统。

Spatio-temporal evolution of global food security pattern and its influencing factors in 2000-2014

Food security is the basic foundation in accomplishing of the overall Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As the objective in SDGs of "halving the proportion of hungry people by 2015" has not been achieved as scheduled, it will become more challenging to realize its final goal of zero hunger by 2030. So exploring the underlying causes of global food security pattern from perspectives of spatio-temporal evolution is badly needed. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation method with multi-indices was applied to evaluate the food security level of 172 countries in 2000-2014 based on an established global database with country-specific time series data. Then the spatial pattern and changing characteristics of global food security by country was conducted through the spatial autocorrelation analysis. Upon this basis, the underlying factors affecting the food security pattern were further identified and analyzed with a multiple nonlinear regression method. The findings and results show that: (1) The global food security pattern can be summarized as "high-high and low-low agglomerations" of socio-economic status and food security level. The most food secure countries are mainly distributed in the regions with more advanced economy such as North America, Oceania, parts of East Asia, and Western Europe. On the contrary, the least food secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, West Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia. (2) At 99% confidence level, Western Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are respectively the hot and cold spots in global food security landscape, while in non-aggregation areas such as Haiti and North Korea, there exist long-term food insecurity problems. (3) The spatio-temporal pattern of global food security is generally stable, but the internal changes in the extremely insecure groups are significant. The countries with the most changeable levels of food security are also the countries with the most food insecurity. (4) Annual mean temperature, per capita GDP, the proportion of people who have access to clean water, and political stability are the key factors affecting the global food security pattern. The study indicates that while the global food security situation has improved since 2000, there was a reverse sign or omen in 2013. Affected by climate change, residents' purchasing power, infrastructure condition, and political and economic stability, global food security has in fact been volatile and some areas in the world are still facing acute food security problems. In addressing this challenge, a food security strategy based on the four dimensions, i.e. food supply, food access, food use and political stability, and a worldwide rural revitalization approach, is highly recommended. Meanwhile, it is necessary to progressively introduce some diversified modes of production such as urban agriculture to build a more resilient food system in those fully urbanized regions.