1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化

基于1950—2015年中国棉花生产分布数据,综合运用时序变化趋势、空间分析等方法,分析中国棉花产量、面积及单产的时空分布特征和重心迁移轨迹,在此基础上量化面积和单产对棉花产量变化的贡献度。结果表明:① 1950—2015年间,中国棉花产量和单产总体呈上升趋势,产量增加521.44万t,单产增加1381.83 kg/hm²,面积经历剧烈波动、平稳发展及3次起落5个时期后,与1950年基本持平;② 棉花产量和面积区域性差距较大,但总体呈增加趋势,单产变化趋势稳定,其中西北内陆棉区棉花生产年际波动最大;③ 1950—2015年中国棉花种植区域中近87%的地区产量增加,约63%的地区棉花面积减少,70%以上地区棉花单产增加。三大棉区产量和单产增加,但增长速率不断减小,西北内陆棉区缩减幅度最小,亦是中国棉花面积增长的主力棉区;④ 中国棉花生产形成“东南—西北”的格局,主产区由黄河流域棉区转为西北内陆棉区;棉花产量和面积重心均向西北方向移动,总移动距离分别为1947 km、1398 km,2010—2015年移动速度最大,分别达到159 km/a、140 km/a;西北内陆棉区生产重心由和田迁至阿克苏,长江流域棉区由六安迁至黄冈,黄河流域棉区则由邯郸迁至聊城;⑤ 全国棉花产量贡献由单产主导逐渐转变为面积主导,从棉区来看,长江和黄河流域棉区亦由单产主导逐渐转变为面积主导,西北内陆棉区则一直为面积主导。

Spatio-temporal changes of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015

Based on the distribution data of cotton production in China from 1950 to 2015, the study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes and gravity center migration path in cotton production, area and yield in China by methods of time-series trend and spatial analysis. Then, contribution rates of cotton area and yield to the changes of cotton production are quantified. The results indicate that: (1) China's cotton production and yield showed an overall upward trend over the past 65 years. Among them, the production increased by 521.44×10⁴ t and the yield increased by 1381.83 kg/hm². After five periods of violent fluctuations, stable development, and three ups and downs, the cotton area was basically the same compared with the year 1950. (2) There was a large regional gap between cotton yield and cotton area, but the overall trend was increasing. The variation trend of cotton yield per unit area was stable, among which the annual fluctuation of cotton production in the inland cotton area of northwest China was the largest. (3) From 1950 to 2015, nearly 87% of China's cotton-growing regions increased their production, about 63% of the regions decreased cotton area, and more than 70% of the regions increased cotton yield. The production and yield of the three major cotton areas have increased, but the growth rate has been decreasing. The northwest inland cotton area had the smallest shrinkage, and it was also the main area for China's cotton area growth. (4) China's cotton production has formed a "southeast-northwest" pattern. The main production area has changed from the Yellow River basin to the northwest inland; the cotton production and area center of gravity have moved to the northwest, with a total moving distance of 1947 km and 1398 km, respectively. From 2010 to 2015, the moving speed was the highest, reaching 140 km/a and 159 km/a, respectively; the production center of cotton in the northwest inland area moved from Hotan to Aksu. The basin cotton area was moved from Lu'an to Huanggang, and the Yellow River basin cotton area was moved from Handan to Liaocheng. (5) The contribution of national cotton production has gradually changed from yield dominance to area dominance. From the perspective of cotton regions, cotton areas in the Yangtze and Yellow river basins have gradually changed from yield dominance to area dominance, and the northwest inland cotton areas have been driven by area.