北京市甲型H1N1流感对气象因子的时空响应

为研究北京市甲型H1N1流感对气象因子的时空响应规律,本文结合地理探测器及空间自相关分析方法,分析北京市甲型H1N1流感的时空分布情况,基于地理加权回归（GWR）模型,建立北京市甲型H1N1流感与平均风速、降雨量、平均湿度以及平均温度之间的回归模型。结果表明,降雨量对流感传播的影响不显著,平均风速与流感的传播主要呈现正相关,平均相对湿度与平均温度与流感的传播主要呈现负相关,其中,平均相对湿度的影响更为复杂。时间上,在流感感染人数快速上升的阶段,各气象因子的影响程度较为显著,而在流感传播速度减慢的阶段,气象因子的影响减弱;空间上,各气象要素对流感传播的影响在北京市4大功能分区上存在空间分异性,这与地区地形、风带、局地气候等因素有关。

The spatio-temporal response of influenza A (H1N1) to meteorological factors in Beijing

Abstract: In order to explore the response of influenza A (H1N1) to meteorological factors, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of influenza A (H1N1) in Beijing using global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord G I * . The regression model between influenza A (H1N1) and average wind speed, precipitation, average relative humidity, average temperature was established, based on the geographical weighted regression (GWR) model. The results showed that there was no obvious correlation between influenza A (H1N1) and the precipitation, while a strong positive correlation between influenza A (H1N1) and average wind speed was found. The average temperature and the average relative humidity had a strong negative correlation with the spread of influenza A (H1N1) in Beijing, while the latter presented a more complex impact on the spread of it. In terms of the spatio-temporal variation, the impact of meteorological factors was significant during the period when the number of influenza A (H1N1) infections rose rapidly, while it decreased when the number of infections rose slowly. Regarding the spatial variation, the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of each meteorological factor on the four functional zones of Beijing was obvious, which might be related to regional conditions such as local terrain, wind zone, and local climate.