基于珠海实证的城市旅游增长极限分析框架

城市旅游是城市的一个开放、高流动的子系统,在一定时期内是相对稳定,有增长极限的。城市旅游增长极限受到供需极限影响,当旅游需求超过供给时,出现过度旅游;而当供给超过需求,就会导致过度旅游化。城市旅游需求增长极限呈现阶梯式,只有当影响城市旅游需求增长的长期因素发生持续重大变化时,城市旅游需求增长才可能突破原有的极限,进入一个新的阶段。城市旅游需求极限规定了城市旅游供给极限,决定了城市在一定时期内适合开发的景区、酒店、餐饮、购物等旅游设施规模。本文基于珠海的实证分析表明,过去十几年,由于旅游供需两方面影响因素缺乏持续重大的变化,城市功能和地位、城市主题和特色等因素相对稳定,加之受到区域其他城市的激烈竞争,珠海中高端旅游需求相对稳定,星级酒店等中高端旅游产品面临增长极限。此时,新增旅游景区和星级酒店并不会带来过夜旅游需求的实质增长,反而可能加剧现阶段旅游供需的失衡,造成过度旅游化。本文也讨论了超越旅游极限的条件以及旅游增长与旅游发展的关系,并进一步建议了旅游统计的改革举措。

The growth of urban tourism: With or without limit

The growth of urban tourism has received wide attentions from tourism geography. Over the past four decades, China has been witnessed rapid, continuous and non-limit growths of urban tourism in most cities. The local governments and developers were encouraged by this miracle of past growth expectation or plan to a more optimistic glowing future. However, the urban tourism is an open and high mobility subsystem of city system, and its growth is stable and faces limits from both supply and demand sides for a certain period. When tourist demand exceeds its supply, it will lead to overtourism. Oppositely, when tourism supply exceeds tourist demand, which will result in over tourismification. The growth of urban tourism demand curve is stepped. Only when the long-term influencing factors of urban tourist demand continue to undergo major changes, can the growth of urban tourism break through the original limit and enter a new stage. The limit of urban tourist demand stipulates the urban tourism supply and determines the scale and level of tourist facilities such as scenic spots, hotels, restaurants, and shopping mall which are cater to the need of urban tourists within a certain period. This study defines a phenomenon of over tourismification as the status of tourism supply over tourist demand, which is manifested as three conditions: whole over-supply, partial over-supply and no over-supply but facing negative reaction to tourism growth by enterprises and locals. This study also proposes an analytical framework on limits to growth of urban tourism and uses it to empirically analyze urban tourism of Zhuhai city. It is found that middle- and high-end tourist demand of the study city has been stable and faced limit since less constant change in function, status, features and image of Zhuhai city took place and more intense competition from surrounding cities occurred in the past decade. This indicated that the supply of middle- and high-end hotels and other tourist facilities in Zhuhai reached a saturation point and any new more such tourist facilities will make for over tourismification. The conditions of breaking through limit and the relationship between growth of urban tourism and tourism development were discussed and suggestions on the improvement of tourism statistics in China were also proposed.