中国县域土地城镇化的区域差异及其影响因素

中国经历了史无前例的快速城镇化进程,与之相伴随的是更加迅猛的土地城镇化过程。基于2000年和2015年中国土地利用现状遥感监测数据,综合运用空间分析、多元回归和地理加权回归的方法,深入分析了中国县域土地城镇化的区域特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 中国县域土地城镇化率年均增长2.77%,其中近40%的区县城镇化率年均增长大于3%;在空间上呈现出不同于人口城镇化的扩散趋势。② 中国县域土地城镇化的南北分异规律较东西分异更为明显。土地城镇化的高值区域始终集中在胡焕庸线的东南半壁,而围绕主要的城市群地区则形成“组团式”增长的热点区,地区间差异趋于收敛。③ 人口集聚、经济发展、产业结构、城市特性与地理区位等要素对县域土地城镇化空间分异格局的影响较为显著、稳定,各要素对土地城镇化的影响均具有明显的时空依赖特征。分析揭示县域土地城镇化的时空特征及其动力机制,对于科学认识新型城镇化和实施城乡融合、乡村振兴战略,具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。

Regional disparity and the influencing factors of land urbanization in China at the county level, 2000-2015

In the unprecedented urbanization process in China, urbanized land has expanded quickly at the same pace or even faster than the growth of the urban population. Employing both the ordinary least square and geographical weighted regression, we analyzed the spatial patterns and factors influencing land urbanization at the county level in 2000 and 2015. This analysis was assisted by land-use data for China acquired from the resource and environment data cloud platform. The research reveals the following points: (1) The annual growth rate of land urbanization experienced 2.77 percentages on average from 2000 to 2015. About 40% of the counties witnessed an annual increase of 3% or above. Land urbanization was manifested in a pattern of diffusion, which differed from the continued spatial polarization of demographic urbanization in China. (2) Geographically, the north-south differentiation of land urbanization was clearer than the east-west differentiation. And the high-value regions tended to be located to the southeast of "Hu Line". Counties surrounding those metropolitan areas were detected as hotspots of land urbanization. In general, there was a convergent trend of land urbanization among regions in China. (3) The factors of population growth, economic development, industrial structure, city/county features, and geographical location have played significant roles in the spatial disparities of land urbanization at the county level. Besides, the spatio-temporal dependence of their influences were also explored. This study on land urbanization and its influencing factors at the county level advances our theoretical and practical understandings of the new-type urbanization, urban and rural integration, and rural revitalization strategies in contemporary China.