2030—2070年中俄油气资源海运可达性与通航成本演变预估

由于社会经济迅速发展,中国对能矿资源的需求量日益增加。因此,中国和资源大国俄罗斯展开了大量的能源贸易。在全球气候变暖、北极航道通航性逐渐提高的背景下,两国港口间的能源运输可通过东北航道完成,在时间、成本、安全性等方面将优于通过传统航道运输。本文采用加权平均旅行时间量化气候变化情景下2030—2070年中国港口到俄罗斯油气资源的可达时间,并建立海运成本体系,计算经由东北航道进行资源运输的成本,得到如下结论：① 中国港口到达俄罗斯石油资源的可达性优于天然气资源;② 中国港口的资源可达时间每十年平均减少7 h,南通港到达俄罗斯资源的可达性最佳;③ 中国港口的资源海运成本每10 a平均降低0.5万美元,从南通港出发的航线成本在所有港口中最低;④ 在高排放浓度情景下,以商船作为媒介的中国港口资源可达性提升潜力巨大,应用前景乐观。本文量化并评估了2030—2070年中俄港口间能源贸易的时间与成本,为中俄能源海上贸易运输提供了理论参考。

Maritime accessibility and navigation cost evolution estimation of Sino-Russian oil and gas resources from 2030 to 2070

Due to the rapid development of society and economy, China's demand for energy and mineral resources is increasing day by day. Therefore, China has carried out a lot of energy trade with Russia, a country with adequate resources. Under the background of global warming and the gradual improvement of Arctic navigation, the energy transportation between the ports of the two countries can be completed through the northeast passage, which will be better than the traditional passage in terms of time, cost, and security. In this paper, the weighted average travel time was used to quantify the accessibility from Chinese ports to Russian oil and gas resources from 2030 to 2070 under climate change scenarios, and a shipping cost system was established to calculate the navigation cost. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The accessibility of Chinese ports to Russian oil resources will be better than that to Russian gas resources. (2) The accessibility of Chinese ports to Russian resources will be reduced by 7 hours on average every decade, and the accessibility of Nantong Port to Russian resources will be the best. (3) The navigation cost of Chinese ports will be reduced by $5000 on average every decade, and the cost of the route from Nantong Port will be the lowest. (4) Under the high emission concentration scenario, merchant shipping will cover a wide range in the future. This paper quantified and evaluated the time and cost of energy trade between China and Russia from 2030 to 2070, which provided a theoretical reference for Sino-Russian maritime transportation and energy trade.