中国超大城市户籍人口转化的实证研究

“十四五”时期到2030年,加快流动人口市民化是推进新型城镇化和实现共同富裕的关键。中国户籍人口城镇化率与常住人口城镇化率相差约18%,老龄化压力与劳动力市场缺口使大城市纷纷出台“抢人”政策,市民化程度亟待提升,焦点在北上广深等超大城市。超大城市每年户籍人口转化数相差很大,学界对此缺乏研究,使得城市每年能“化”多少户籍人口成为重要学术问题。本文结合自然和社会两个视角,选取简明指标,构建可能—满意度模型,测算4个超大城市年均户籍城镇化转化缺口,构建面板数据模型实证分析超大城市户籍缺口的主导因素。影响超大城市户籍人口转化的因素主要是医疗、教育和供水。城乡治理亟需转变被动和僵化的制度安排,实现弹性的常态化治理。

An empirical research of the registered population transformation in China’s megacities

From 2020 to 2030,accelerating the citizenization of the floating population is the key to promoting new urbanization and achieving common prosperity.The urbanization rate of registered population in China is roughly 18% lower than that of permanent residents.The aging pressure and lack of labor force make big cities introduce relevant policies to attract talents,and the citizenization process needs to be improved urgently,with the focus on megacities.The transformation number of registered people in megacities varies greatly,and the academic world lacks research on this,which makes the transformation number of registered residents in megacities become an important academic issue.This paper,from both natural and social perspectives,selects concise indicators,and combines the PossibilitySatisfiability model to estimate the urbanization transformation gap of annual household registration,and constructs a panel data model to empirically analyze the factors leading to the gap of household registration in megacities.The main factors affecting the transformation of registered population in megacities are medical service,as well as educational resources and urban water supply.It is urgent for urban and rural administrators to change the passive and rigid institutional mechanisms and realize the flexible and normal governance.