耦合适应力的福州市高温脆弱性评估

全球气候变化导致极端高温发生区域不断增加,高温给自然环境和人类社会带来的负面效应不断扩大,严重影响了城市复合人地系统的脆弱性。适应是应对极端高温的重要行动,耦合适应力因素的城市高温脆弱性研究已成为国际热点和研究前沿。本文以中国代表性高温城市福州为例,利用专家评估、AHP法、地理空间分析技术,结合实地问卷调查和有序多分类Logistic回归分析等方法,重构耦合适应力的城市高温脆弱性空间评价指标体系,通过对福州市高温脆弱性和适应力的影响因素、空间分异特征、热点地区和尺度间依赖进行研究,系统评估了福州市高温脆弱性。结果表明：① 年龄、住房面积、外出纳凉频率、健康状况、医疗便利程度和政府缓解高温力度等6个指标对福州市居民高温适应力水平具有显著影响;② 福州市高温脆弱性、暴露性和适应力的空间分布均呈现“核心—外围”空间结构,高温脆弱性呈现“半包围式”的“外高内低”的空间特征;③ 在城市区域高温暴露性和易损性相同的背景下,从个体人到社区和城市层面的主动适应高温的能力,将显著改变城市高温脆弱性的空间分布。研究结果以期推动城市高温脆弱性研究的理论发展,并为福州市及同类型高温城市的高温脆弱性评估、调控和适应提供决策参考。

Evaluation of urban high temperature vulnerability of coupling adaptability in Fuzhou,China

The extent of extremely high temperature is expanding under global climate change. The adverse effects of high urban temperatures are worsening, presenting great danger to the environment and human society, and are especially pernicious to urban human-environment compound systems. Adaptation is an important action to cope with the extremely high temperature, and the studies of high temperature vulnerability coupled with the adaptability factors have become the international hot spots and research frontiers. Fuzhou city, one of the high temperature cities in China, was evaluated as a case study in this research. Expert evaluation, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), geographical spatial analysis technologies, questionnaire survey and orderly multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to reconstruct the spatial evaluation index system of urban high temperature susceptibility of coupling adaptability. In this study, the high temperature vulnerability of Fuzhou, its spatial differentiation, scale dependence, hot spots and the influencing factors of adaptability were systematically evaluated. The results indicated that: (1) Six selected indices, namely age, housing area, out-of-home cooling frequency, health condition, degree of medical convenience and government efforts to alleviate the high temperature, had significant impact on city residents' adaptability. (2) The spatial distribution of urban high temperature vulnerability, exposure and adaptability in Fuzhou showed a spatial structure of "core-periphery" , and the high temperature vulnerability of Fuzhou showed the semi-enclosed spatial pattern with the characteristics of "high near the outer and low near the inner area". (3) Under the same background of regional high temperature exposure and susceptibility, the adaptability from individual to community and city government could significantly change the spatial distribution of urban high temperature vulnerability. The research results are expected to further the theoretical progress of urban high temperature vulnerability, and to provide the basis of decision-making for Fuzhou and other cities of the same category.