过去150年长三角地区的春季物候变化

利用中国历史日记中的长三角地区春季物候记录,重建了该地区1834年以来的春季物候期变化序列,同时结合气温观测资料分析了该序列对温度变化的指示意义.主要结论有:(1) 1834-1893年,长三角地区春季物候在波动中逐渐推迟,但19世纪末起突然出现大幅提前；1900-1990年以年代际波动为主要特征,1990-2010年又再次出现大幅提前；1834年以来,该地区春季物候最迟的年份为1893年,最早的年份为2007年,分别较1977-1996年平均推迟27天和提早17天.(2)长三角地区的春季物候期变化与该地区上年12月-当年3月及当年1-3月气温变化的相关系数分别超过-0.75、-0.80,可很好地指示该地区的冬季与初春(特别是1-3月)气温变化；这为进一步集成多种代用资料重建历史时期的中国温度变化提供了重要数据基础和依据.

Changes of Spring Phenodate in Yangtze River Delta Region in the Past 150 Years

Based on phenological records extracted from Chinese historical dairies, the series of spring phenodate in the Yangtze River Delta region of China since 1834 is reconstructed. Together with the temperature and phenology observation data, the interpretation of the phenodate variation to temperature change is also analyzed. The results are shown as follows. (1) Spring phenology in the Yangtze River Delta region is gradually delayed during 1834-1893 and greatly advances after 1893; and exhibits inter-decadal fluctuation during 1900-1990 and greatly advances after 1990. The latest year of the spring phenodate is delayed by 27 days and occurs in 1893, while the earliest year is advanced by 17 days and occurs in 2007. (2) Correlation coefficient between spring phenodate in the Yangtze River Delta region and temperature (previous December to March and January to March) is higher significant up to the level at 99.9% with the value over -0.75 and -0.80, respectively. The variation of spring phenodate well indicates the change of temperature from previous winter to early spring, especially from January to March. These results will provide a data basis for the further study on temperature change reconstruction using multi-proxy data, including phenological records during historical times.