长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测

利用1961-2011年长江源区流域水文、气象观测数据和国家气候中心2009年11月发布的中国地区气候变化预估数据集(2.0版本),通过分析长江源区流量的演变规律和揭示气候归因,预测了未来流量可能的演变趋势.研究表明:近51年来长江源区地表水资源总体呈增加趋势,特别是2004年后增加趋势显著,并具有9a、22a的准周期；青藏高原加热场增强,高原季风进入强盛期,流域降水量显著增加,加之气候变化导致冰川融水增多,是引起长江源区地表水资源增加的主要气候归因；根据全球气候模式预测,在SRESA1B气候变化情景下,未来20年长江源区地表水资源仍有可能以增加为主.

Response of Water Resources to Climate Change and Its Future Trend in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

By using the hydrological and meteorological observational data as well as impact data set (version 2.0) about climate change in China published by the National Climate Center in November 2009, the variations of flow and its climate causes are analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the surface water resources show an increasing trend in the source region of Yangtze River in recent 51 years, especially after 2004, the trend was very obvious, and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years; Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced, plateau monsoon went into a strong period, precipitation increased notably, and glacier melt water increased due to the climate change, all of which are the main climate causes of water resource increase in the source region. Based on the global climate model prediction, in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios, the water resources are likely to increase in this region in the next 20 years.