气候变化对地缘政治格局的影响路径与效应

以2009 年哥本哈根联合国气候变化大会为标志,气候变化正在以前所未有的力度塑造未来地缘政治的新格局。气候变化问题已经不再是纯粹的环境问题,而是成为国际关系中的焦点问题。在气候变化的驱动下,地缘政治格局的演变出现了新的变化:① 地缘政治争夺向新的领域和地域拓展;② 地缘政治争夺工具和手段的更新;③ 地缘政治博弈主体出现新的分化与重组。随着气候变化问题政治化的不断发展,气候变化已经成为影响地缘政治格局演变的重要驱动因子之一。气候变化导致地缘政治争夺的手段、范围和内容都有了改变,碳排放空间,新能源技术等成为地缘政治争夺的重点。气候变化主要通过“回溯作用”、“反馈作用”和“波及作用”3 条主要路径对地缘政治格局的演变产生作用,其对地缘政治格局的影响是借助“溯源效应”、“抑制效应”和“扩散效应”三种方式发挥影响力。本文的基本结论是:① 气候变化逐渐成为影响当今世界地缘政治格局演变最活跃的驱动因子之一,并使地缘政治争夺的目标和手段趋于多元化;② 气候变化催生了新的地缘政治工具,发达国家借助气候变化这个杠杆,撬动能源、粮食等战略资源,手段更加隐蔽;③ 以新能源为核心的低碳技术成为地缘政治影响力和权力转移的关键因素,谁能在新能源技术领域占据优势,谁就能在未来的气候变化谈判和地缘政治竞争中具有主导地位。

Influence Path and Effect of Climate Change on Geopolitical Pattern

Marked by the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009,climate change is shaping the new pattern for future geopolitics with unprecedented drive.Climate change has surpassed the category of pure environment problem and become a focal issue in international relations.Under the drive of climate change,new changes have taken place in the evolution of geopolitical patterns.(1)Geopolitical contention expands into new fields and regions.(2)Measures and tools of geopolitical contention have become more diversified.(3) Main bodies of geopolitical gambling can be divided into defferent groups.With the development of politicization,climate change has become the driving force to have significant influence on the evolution of geopolitical patterns.Measures,sphere and contents of geopolitical contention changed dramatically,carbon emission permits,carbon tariff,new energy technology turned into the key points of geopolitical contention.Climate change acts on the evolution of geopolitical pattern through three main paths:"Trace back effect", "Feedback effect"and"Ripple effect",and they exert influence on geopolitical pattern in three aspects:"Traceability effect","Depression effect"and"Diffusion effect".We draw several conclusions from the analysis:(1)climate change tends to be one of the most active driving forces to have impact on the evolution of geopolitical patterns in the present world and it diversifies the geopolitical targets;(2)climate change generates new geopolitical tools. The developed countries use climate change as a"lever"to pry strategic resources such as energy and grain,and the geopolitical means can be used in a more secretive way;(3)low carbon economy,with new energy technology as the core,becomes the key factor of geopolitical influence and power transition.Those who can take advantage of new energy technologies will occupy the leading position in climate change negotiations and geopolitical competition in the future.