塔里木河流域水资源变化的特点与趋势

通过时间序列分析了塔里木河流域山区1961￣2002年的降水和温度变化,源流干流水分的消耗,并对这些指标进行了KENDALL秩次相关检验。结果显示:塔里木河源流山区降水和温度均有增加,但是降水增加的趋势在琢=0.05水平上不显著,温度升高的趋势显著;塔里木河流域几个源流水量增加,特别是在1994￣2002年,年平均径流量比多年平均增加了25.163×108m3/a,而上游三源流补给干流水量只增加0.9985×108m3/a,塔里木河干流沿程各站的径流量呈现显著的线性递减趋势,表明连续十年的丰水期并没有改变干流生态环境恶化的局面;如果三源流来水以正常年份计算(1957￣2003年平均来水量),塔里木河干流来水量每年只有22.57×108m3,那样塔里木河流域的生态安全将更令人担忧。

The Dynamic Variation of Water Resources and Its Tendency in Tarim River Basin

The method of time series is applied to analyze the variation of precipitation and temperature from 1961 to 2002 in the mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin, as well as water consumption in the headstream and mainstream areas. Those hydrologic parameters are verified. Quantitative results indicate that the precipitation and temperature in the headstream areas have an increasing trend to different extents. The increasing trend of precipitation is less significant than that of the temperature (α = 0.05). Runoff of three headstreams also increased especially from 1994 to 2002. Compared with the perennial runoff, the annual runoff has increased by 25.163×10⁸ m³/a. However, inflows of the mainstream areas have only increased by 0.9985×10⁸ m³/a. So the runoff at different hydrologic stations in the headstream areas has a linear decreasing trend. It is shown that the degraded trend of ecological environment of the Tarim River Basin hardly changes in the special water period for continual ten years. Given runoff of three headstreams is accounted in the normal period from 1957 to 2003, the annual runoff of the headstream areas would be only 22.57×10⁸ m³. The ecological safety problem of the Tarim River Basin will be paid attention to in current situation.