美丽中国与联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)结合的黑河流域水资源承载力评价

水资源是制约干旱、半干旱区社会经济发展的关键因素，结合联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）指标和美丽中国评价指标，以水资源承载力为核心，从水资源系统、社会系统、经济系统、生态环境系统、协调系统5个方面构建指标体系，基于熵权法确定权重，评价2001-2017年黑河流域各县区水资源承载力及时空分布。结果表明：（1）当前水资源利用效率水平下，2010年以来黑河流域大多数县区GDP均超过最大承载能力，而人口则在2010年以前已超载。（2）从水资源承载综合评价结果来看，2001-2015年随着生态输水工程的进一步实施，水资源承载力有所好转，但中下游波动较大，水资源形势依然十分严峻。（3）控制不断扩展的绿洲面积，减少高耗水农作物种植面积，实施合理用水总量控制和定额管理措施，是减缓水资源压力的重要措施。

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Heihe River Basin Combining Beautiful China with SDGs

Water resource availability is a key factor restricting the socio-economic development of arid areas. Taking the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity as the core objective, water resources, social, economic and ecological environmental factors in the evaluation of Beautiful China were combined with the SDGs indicator framework for a water resources system. The index was constructed from five systems:water resources, social, economic, ecological environment, and coordination. The weights were determined using the entropy weight method. The water resources carrying capacity and time distribution of the counties in the Heihe River Basin in 2001-2017 were evaluated. The results show that:(1) Under the current water use efficiency level, the GDP of most counties in the Heihe River Basin has exceeded the maximum carrying capacity since 2010, while the population exceeded the carrying capacity before 2010. (2) From the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity, with the further implementation of the ecological water delivery project in 2001-2015, the water resources carrying capacity has improved, but the fluctuation in the middle and lower reaches is large, and the water resources situation is still very serious. (3) It is important to implement measures to reduce the pressure on water resources by controlling the ever-expanding oasis area, to reduce the planting area of high-water consumption crops, to implement reasonable water consumption control and quota management measures, and to improve water use efficiency.