叶尔羌河年径流量与降水量的集中性及相关性分析

 利用叶尔羌河源流区近50 a的逐月降水量与径流量资料,借助非参数检验、小波分析等方法研究了叶尔羌河年径流量与降水量的集中性及多时间尺度相关关系。结果表明:①叶尔羌河径流量在冬半年增加显著并在1993年发生明显的突变,而降水量在全年呈显著的增加且突变点在1986年。②叶尔羌河径流量与降水量集中度指数在总体上皆呈不显著的减少。③叶尔羌河径流量的集中度指数存在3、11 a和16 a的周期变化,而降水量集中度指数存在3、7 a和14 a显著周期性。④叶尔羌河6—9月径流量与降水量存在多时间尺度的显著负相关。

Analysis on Concentration and Correlation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Yarkand River Basin

Based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data in the Yarkand River source area during the recent 50 years, the paper studied concentration and correlation characteristics of runoff and precipitation by using methods of the nonparametric test and wavelet analysis. Results show that: (1) A increasing trend of runoff was significant in the cold semi-year and its abrupt change occurred in 1993; the annual precipitation had a significant increasing trend and its abrupt change happened in 1986. (2) As a whole, the concentration indexes of the annual runoff and precipitation had insignificant decreasing trend. (3) The primary periods of the concentration index variation for runoff were 3, 11 and 16 years, that of precipitation were 3, 7 and 14 years. (4) Significant negative correlations were observed between the annual runoff and precipitation from June to September in the multi-time scales.